Exclusive: Iran hard-liner Raisi to win election at pivotal Middle East moment, poll shows

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'All indications suggest that [Ebrahim] Raisi will become Iran's next president,' IranPoll CEO Amir Farmanesh said in a statement shared alongside exclusive data sent to Newsweek. 'Contrary to what some believe, his election is unlikely to significantly change the course of Iran's foreign policy.'

that"the result of the presidential election in Iran has nothing to do with the ongoing talks in Vienna."

While the JCPOA itself may remain a priority, Rad signaled potential shifts in other areas that might ultimately affect Iran's relationships with the region and beyond. Controversy over Raisi's alleged involvement in human rights violations such as a 1988 massacre of political prisoners, for which he is subject to U.S.

In the foreign policy realm, initiatives begun under Rouhani may actually receive a boost under Raisi. Rouhani's latter days in office saw a widening public rift between his administration and Khamenei, a divide that Javad Heirannia, director of the Persian Gulf Studies at the Center for Scientific Research and Middle East Strategic Studies in Tehran, said would come in contrast to Raisi's positive relationship with the Supreme Leader.

"The attack on the Saudi embassy was carried out with the aim of completely closing Hassan Rouhani's hand in foreign relations," Heirannia said."Iran could not have been isolated even in the face of sanctions by maintaining ties with its neighbors, or at least by not escalating tensions with neighbors such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Saudi Arabia plays a pivotal role in the Islamic world and the Arab world.

Supporters of Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi attend an election campaign rally in the capital Tehran, on June 14.Abroad, regional stakeholders have so far adopted a mainly wait-and-see approach toward the Iranian contest. "Our Iran policy is designed to advance U.S. interests, regardless of who is in power," the spokesperson said."We continue to negotiate along with our allies and partners on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action."

Amid concerns that the election could prove a slide toward theocracy, Khamenei defended the vote as a demonstration of the country's hybrid democratic framework.

 

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