to trade in the 1.100-1.1650 range during the next weeks. They see the pair moving to the downside, before staging a gradual rebound after the first quarter. “The pair has found more support closer to the 1.1000-level similar to between 2015 and early 2017, and more recently between late 2019 and early 2020. The price action fits with our view that the EUR has become more deeply undervalued against the US dollar which is helping to dampen further downside risks in the near-term.
“There is still room to price in more Fed hikes further out the curve and price in a higher terminal rate. Additionally, thecould announce plans to begin shrinking their balance sheet sooner and more quickly than in the last tightening cycle. As a result, we still expect EUR/USD to trade closer to the 1.1000- level in Q1 before drifting gradually higher later this year.”
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