A top challenge: making sense of economic data that suggests the U.S. manufacturing industry may be contracting and inflation remains weak, even as households continue to spend and employers overall are adding plenty of jobs.
Strong retail sales and continued wage growth may add to Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren’s confidence that current economic conditions do not justify further policy easing. He dissented in the July policy decision. Traders of futures contracts tied to the Fed’s policy rate were pricing in, as of Monday afternoon, a 65.8% chance that the central bank would cut its benchmark overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2% on Wednesday.
“But clearly there is disagreement at the Fed ... If the Fed is very split and Powell can’t give a strong signal, doesn’t that imply very few moves are likely, rather than these dramatic cuts?”
That’s long overdue the first fed meeting 101 years ago was on Jekyll island Georgia
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