Democrats Need High Black Turnout In 2020. How Can They Get It?

It’s the ticket for a Democratic win in 2020. Photo: Bill Wechter/AFP via Getty Images Among the many factors that contributed to Hillary Clinton’s shocking defeat in 2016, one pretty much everyone agrees upon is a falloff in African-American turnout relative to 2012. The numbers are clear, as Politico reported in 2017:

Crucially, the drop in black turnout was even sharper in states where the margin of victory was less than 10 points than it was nationally—in those battleground states, black turnout dropped 5.3 points. In two critical states that swung to Trump—Michigan and Wisconsin—black turnout dropped by just more than 12 points. Declines were less dramatic but significant in other swing states Trump carried: Ohio , Florida , and Pennsylvania .

The most obvious factor to which to attribute the 2012-2016 falloff in African-American turnout is the absence at the top of the ticket of the first African-American president. 2016 black turnout, in fact, returned to its pre-Obama, 2004 levels. What’s hard to calculate is whether the 2008-2012 turnout boom was a unique event attributable to Obama’s pioneering status , or could be replicated by another African-American at the top of the ticket in 2020 or beyond.

On the other hand, it’s impossible to ignore the fact that in the 2020 Democratic presidential nominating contest, two African-American senators whose resumes compare favorably to Obama’s when he first ran are really struggling with black voters. In a recent Monmouth poll of South Carolina, where roughly 60 percent of the primary electorate is African-American , the top-polling black candidate, Kamala Harris, is losing the black vote to Joe Biden by a 39-8 margin.

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