Democrats losing their hold on California and California losing its hold on America 

Polls give us clues. Trump continues to have the small but persistent lead in public polls he has maintained since November 2023 — in contrast to the 2016 and 2020 cycles, in which he often trailed in national and target state polls.

And California, unlike those states but like Louisiana and Washington, has, except at the presidential level, all-party primaries, in which the top two candidates, regardless of party, advance to the general election. Similarly, in the all-party primary for the U.S. Senate, Democrats got 59% of the votes and Republicans 39%. That’s down from Sen. Alex Padilla’s 61%-39% margin in 2022 and then-Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s 63%-37% in the last Democratic-Republican runoff in 2012. It’s nearly the same as Gov. Gavin Newsom’s 59%-41% reelection in 2022 but weaker than his 62%-38% victory in 2018.

This year, Republicans won majorities in 13 districts to Democrats’ 39, a vast improvement on the 46-7 Democratic margin in 2018 when, in reaction against Trump, Rep. Nancy Pelosi won back the House majority and the speaker’s chair.

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