Democratic Activists Seem Out Of Step With Voters So Far

.@FiveThirtyEight has been conducting recurring interviews with early-state Democratic activists. Here's what they've found.

15.2.2020

.FiveThirtyEight has been conducting recurring interviews with early-state Democratic activists. Here's what they've found.

Just before the now-infamous Iowa caucuses began, I concluded the final wave of my recurring interviews with early-state Democratic activists. Thirty-one activi…

3 3 The February 2020 results are based on interviews with 31 Democratic activists who were asked about the 12 candidates listed above. The number of activists who responded in previous rounds of interviews is varied, and those rounds included candidates who have since dropped out. Source: SETH MASKET, “LEARNING FROM LOSS: THE DEMOCRATS, 2016-2020” Next, I examined which candidates the activists say they don’t want as the nominee. And as in past waves, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard and Sanders dominate this category, with 24 and 20 of the 31 activists (77 and 65 percent), respectively, saying they don’t want to see those candidates nominated. Interestingly, Warren also now has more detractors than in previous rounds. Eight of 31 activists (26 percent) now say they don’t want her nominated, up from six of 31 (19 percent) last time. Also, Biden’s negatives are up from the last wave — from five of 31 activists (16 percent) to seven of 31 (23 percent). Finally, I asked the activists which candidate they think people in their community are leaning toward, regardless of their own preferences. Six of 31 activists thought their communities were leaning toward Warren, which was the same as it was in the last wave. And seven of the 31 activists said they thought Sanders was the preferred candidate in their area, which is up considerably from the last survey, when only three of 31 felt this way. Biden also increased on this metric from eight to nine activists saying they thought members of their community were considering him. One other activist said they thought that their community was leaning toward Klobuchar, but no other candidates were mentioned by name in response to this question. 5 Overall, this last round of interviews offered an interesting snapshot of support for Biden among influential party members right before voters caucused in Iowa (where he placed fourth) and cast ballots in New Hampshire (where he placed fifth). And this support may yet serve him well in upcoming contests, but it clearly wasn’t enough to save him from some rough losses in the first two states to vote. Granted, Iowa and New Hampshire are two very white states that were not expected to be particularly favorable for Biden , but his weak showing suggests a limited ability for these activists to steer or predict actual voter behavior. The findings also point to the interesting position Sanders finds himself in as the winner of one (or two, depending on ) winner of the early-state contests. Across all the rounds of interviews, I’ve seen Sanders retain a loyal group of supporters, but there’s also consistently been a fairly large share of activists who don’t want to see him as the nominee. In other words, Sanders continues to look like a factional candidate. His performance in Iowa (he won the popular vote but not the delegate tally ) and his victory in New Hampshire are not trivial, of course, but with so many party insiders uncomfortable with him, it remains to be seen whether he can expand his coalition beyond the quarter or so of voters who already favor him. It would appear that Democratic Party insiders (or at least the group that I’ve been talking to) made a decision, although a good number of them remain undecided. But to the extent that these activists can send a signal to primary voters and caucusgoers, they have generally signaled that they’d prefer Warren — or, more recently, Biden. We’re now getting to see what those voters and caucusgoers do with the information, and these next few primaries will be a real test of the strength of both the candidates and these activists. CORRECTION (Feb. 13, 2020, 5:45 p.m.): A previous version of this story incorrectly referred to Tulsi Gabbard as a former representative. She is still serving in Congress, though she says she is not planning to run for reelection. Footnotes Although Washington’s primary election is neither early nor pivotal, I chose to interview activists from this area because of their proximity to early candidate activity and the fact that the area is heavily saturated early primary-race media coverage. Her net gain was only two new supporters because one of her previous supporters didn’t respond to this round of interviews. My previous survey included three supporters of Booker, who withdrew from the presidential race last month . One of them switched to Warren, one is now undecided, and one declined to answer this survey. In total, two people who were pledged to a candidate last time did not respond this time. They are not included in my count of committed activists, as their support might have changed in the interim. Specifically, I asked respondents, “Which, if any, of the following candidates are you considering supporting for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?” I provided respondents with a randomized list of the 12 presidential candidates who are most commonly mentioned in a variety of news sources and who were still running as of Jan. 27, 2020. This includes former Rep. John Delaney, who dropped out on Jan. 31. Respondents were allowed to mention as many names as they wish, and I also provided space for respondents to write in names. One person said their community was leaning toward “someone else” but didn’t specify who. Seth Masket is a professor of political science and director of the Center on American Politics at the University of Denver, specializing in political parties, state legislatures and campaigns and elections. He is the author of “The Inevitable Party: Why Attempts to Kill the Party System Fail and How they Weaken Democracy.” Read more: ABC News

FiveThirtyEight Joe Biden is done. you ll see. FiveThirtyEight FiveThirtyEight The projections have been mostly wrong FiveThirtyEight FiveThirtyEight FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver is a loser......a piker He should go have a drink and go back to betting on sports..... Remember, he’s one of those pollsters that predicted Hillary would win back in 2016.....

FiveThirtyEight Reunite the United States vote blue 2020

Democratic Activists Seem Out Of Step With Voters So FarJust before the now-infamous Iowa caucuses began, I concluded the final wave of my recurring interviews with early-state Democratic activists. Thirty-one activi… FiveThirtyEight more dems r deserting dems' party bc of their insanity-agendas: MEDICARE FOR ILLEGALS; OPEN BORDERS; more handouts/welfare; more taxes. such insanity is sure recipe for economic disaster, will make us all equally poor. how do u control costs? FiveThirtyEight Next thing you know...this guy will be writing a book!

India’s ruling party receives a drubbing in DelhiNarendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party won a scant eight out of 70 parliamentary seats Assembly seats not parliamentary seats 🙏 BJP supported medias promoted that 8/70 is win in all 70 now. BJP allowed party hoppers to become Ministers/MLA/ MP by neglecting Honest/Loyal BJP leaders. Party General Secretaries support only Corrupt brains. Modi is neglected by these fun lovers in Party/Govt. So punishment Ruling party asked for it by creating confusion through new laws & unrest ...

Poll: Majority says Biden son’s Ukraine job was inappropriateA majority of voters believe it was inappropriate for Joe Biden’s son to work for a Ukrainian gas company while his father led U.S. foreign policy initiatives in the country, according to a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll What do those same people think of the Trump kids profiting off of their daddy's name? I think it was inappropriate for the current President's daughter to get trademarks from China while he was in trade talks with them. Watcha gonna do? 🤷‍♀️ Do these same voters think it is appropriate for Trumps daughter and son-in-law to work for US while dad is POTUS and make millions?

Why ‘Stop and Frisk’ Hasn’t Arrested Bloomberg’s RiseMichael Bloomberg's ascension up the 2020 ranks, especially among black voters, seems incongruous. It’s not. zakcheneyrice writes zakcheneyrice Bloombuck fluff piece zakcheneyrice How much did he pay to have you write this? You can DM me if you need to zakcheneyrice This is a fluff piece?

Bernie Sanders passes Joe Biden for top Democratic candidate in 2020 race, according to a new pollThe poll, released on Wednesday, shows Sanders with 22 percent support among likely Democratic primary and caucus voters. That's right Bernie has been fighting for the 99% his entire political career, since his years as Mayor of Burlington! He will continue on message! I like Bernie and I like Warren but I believe both are two radical to the far left to beat Trump. The reason that many voters will choose the Dem candidate no matter who just to beat Trump. Others need a good reason to do so and these two may turn many of those people off

Analysis: Bloomberg storms to the center of the 2020 presidential frayAnalysis: The former New York mayor's stealth campaign has him in third place and on the minds of rival candidates, Democratic insiders and voters. jonallendc If you have billions you can storm into the center of anything. jonallendc Only as his campaign funds suggest to the mediums. jonallendc Counter Argument: No he's not.



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