CSL’s Swiss drug punt looks like a bad trip

. More importantly, its shares look cheap. Before reports of a possible deal sparked a 14% share rally on Thursday, the Zurich-based firm’s shares were trading at 103 Swiss francs, only just over half their pre-pandemic levels.However, that doesn’t guarantee a healthy return. Assuming CSL ends up paying a 30% premium, Vifor would be worth 8.7 billion Swiss francs after deducting its minimal net cash. With little obvious overlap, Perreault will struggle to eke out significant synergies.

There are other potential pitfalls too. The patents on Vifor’s top drug, Ferinject, an infusion for iron deficiencies, run out in 2023 in Europe and 2028 in America. Berenberg reckons it alone represents 55% of the company’s net present value. That means Vifor needs to diversify, and fast. Perreault’s historical Midas touch means he may well have a plan to keep the revenue flowing. But, as every Swiss winter-sports enthusiast knows, when you’ve scaled the peak, there’s only one way to go.

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