Credit markets will withstand Evergrande shocks

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Is China Evergrande another Lehman Brothers moment? Not at all, according to the $40 trillion global corporate debt market. International credit investors have good reasons to be so nonchalant about the potential ripple effects of problems at the Chinese property behemoth with a $300 billion debt pile.

A crane stands behind a gate to the construction site of a luxury residential compound developed by China Evergrande Group in Beijing, China September 22, 2021. REUTERS/Carlos Garcia Rawlins - RC2UUP9HC6U2another Lehman Brothers moment? Not at all, according to the $40 trillion global corporate debt market. International credit investors have good reasons to be so nonchalant about the potential ripple effects of problems at the Chinese property behemoth with a $300 billion debt pile.

But those ripple effects look contained. In the United States, where some $19 billion of Evergrande bonds are issued, the average extra yield that investors demand to own junk-rated debt is steady at roughly 310 basis points, another ICE Bank of America index shows. That’s even lower than the levels seen in the heady days of September 2006. And the yield spread on bonds issued by U.S.

New Covid-19 variants or a Chinese property meltdown could hurt the global economic recovery. But companies have emerged from the pandemic in good health having raised cash, cut costs and skimped on investment in the past 18 months. European companies’ debt has fallen to 2.3 times trailing EBITDA and that multiple could sink as low as 2 times by year-end, its lowest since before the Lehman collapse in 2008, Citi analysts reckon.

 

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