COVID death tolls: scientists acknowledge errors in WHO estimates

). Official systematic updates of estimates for excess mortality — including for Germany and Sweden — will follow “in the next iteration planned later this year”, says Somnath Chatterji, a senior adviser in the WHO’s Division of Data, Analytics and Delivery for Impact in Geneva, Switzerland.

This kind of project can give only rough approximations, because it requires complex modelling and regular revision as new data come in. For instance, only 100 of the world’s countries have so far reported national deaths data each month for at least part of the pandemic period, the WHO says.

pointed out that the organization’s prediction of expected mortality in Germany in 2020–21 was surprisingly low, pushing up the excess death figures.Researchers model expected mortality by extrapolating historical trends. For instance, the World Mortality Dataset , one widely cited project, uses a linear extrapolation from deaths in 2015–19 to account for underlying mortality trends.

After the criticisms, Wakefield and the WHO team re-examined their extrapolation method. But they then discovered a second problem, which turned out to be a bigger concern: their data for actual deaths in Germany did not match the raw data from German statistical offices, also collated in projects such as the WMD. This mismatch affected not only deaths reported in 2020 and 2021, but also the 2015–19 historical data. That had played a major part in their low extrapolation of expected deaths.

wtfalready2022

'Trust the Experts'

yeah because not matter what they died from covid fake as hell seen it locally

daridor PECC_Israel

Gee. Would have been awesome if only a single nation had representative figures. Well who cares, right?

Oops.

nntaleb

I'd like more info on this graph. And we know the reported deaths number is low. Economist and others have been using actuarial data and death certificates to get their numbers. More or less using the formula: actual deaths in a country - expected deaths = covid deaths

And TheEconomist has yet to admit its ridiculous sham was just that.

I question the reported deaths instead

This is a joke

ArielKarlinsky

We'll never know the true toll.

I would have like this story of the framing was “scientists fix errors for more accurate estimate of excess deaths”

It’s time to question modeling methodology as scientific approach!

good golly

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