China’s Growth Hasn’t Bottomed Yet

It is a small irony that, even as negotiators were returning home from the Glasgow climate summit, data released Monday showedThe good news, from a growth perspective at least, is that power curbs probably no longer present much of a threat to Chinese manufacturing writ large. The bad news is that domestic demand still looks very weak. Growth will probably decelerate further for the remainder of 2021 and into early 2022.

China has recently reiterated its ambition to rein in coal demand growth so that it peaks later this decade. But Monday’s data showed thatmeant to improve mining safety and hit environmental targets have fallen by the wayside as spiking coal prices and power shortages threatened to upend industry and leave residents without winter heat. Coal production rose 4% year over year in October, which was the fastest since April 2020.

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry expressed optimism about China’s agreement to cooperate with the U.S. to address climate change, in remarks at the COP26 conference. He spoke after 190 nations agreed late Saturday on a deal to reduce emissions, which critics said is short on detail. Photo: Alberto Pezzali/AP

There were a few bright spots. Growth in retail sales rebounded modestly on a year over year basis despite a new coronavirus outbreak in China. Fixed-asset investment in manufacturing remained robust at 10.1% growth according to HSBC, likely helped by continued strong export demand. But with the property sector downturn continuing to deepen and only small inklings of a more permissive stance on mortgages and developer debt so far—to say nothing of more broad-based easing—it seems unlikely that China’s economy will stabilize until early 2022 at best.

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