China’s Economy Looks to Be on the Mend. What That Could Mean for Markets.

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A resurgent China would benefit non-U.S. shares, cyclicals, and industrials. Plus, investment newsletter commentary on Bitcoin, ETF flows, GDP forecasts, and...

This commentary was issued recently by money managers, research firms, and market newsletter writers and has been edited by Barron's.Oct. 27: For the past five years or so, China has been one disappointment after another for equity investors . It wasn’t that long ago that global investors genuinely cared about Chinese policy shifts and moves in Chinese markets.

In any event, should China prove to be a catalyst for the stabilization of global equity markets, we would likely see a significant rotation within and between markets. Non-U.S. markets would outperform the U.S., cyclicals and industrials would outperform tech, and yield curves would likely steepen further.Oct. 27: For the most part, we’ve seen Bitcoin act more like a growth stock over the past several years under more normal market conditions.

Outflows from both stocks and bonds in the same week is an infrequent, but not unusual occurrence. In the past decade, it has happened a little more than two times per year on average and has functioned as an indication of excessive pessimism.Oct. 26: The initial estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis puts Q3 real gross-domestic-product growth at an annual rate of 4.9%, slightly ahead of our above-consensus forecast of 4.8% growth.

That said, the initial Q3 print is in line with the firmer tone, at least on the surface, of much of the recent economic data, leaving two alternative views of how to interpret the robust Q3 growth. One interpretation is that the economy is largely immune to the effects of higher interest rates and what many for some time saw as an inevitable recession is off the table.

 

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