FILE PHOTO: Shoppers are seen wearing masks while shopping at a Walmart store in Bradford, Pennsylvania, U.S. July 20, 2020. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Consumer spending drives about two-thirds of the U.S. economy, and the July numbers “are encouraging because they suggest the recovery has continued to grind on even in the fact of the resurgence in virus cases,” wrote Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist for Capital Economics. Though the loss of unemployment income, if it persists, “poses a downside risk to spending in the near term ... consumption growth will recover gradually from here.
Those two views - of a recovery grinding ahead as people adapt and health risks are gradually controlled, or of massive family and business failures in the near future - are at the root of a stalemate in the U.S. Congress that saw lawmakers head home until September with no sign of progress on a new stimulus package.
Recent data through July, for example, showed overall bankruptcies down 25% over the same seven-month period in 2019. High-frequency data has shown that growth in traffic to those sorts of businesses has plateaued, and the July sales statistic backed that up. Americans got their calories and their beer and wine - but from online orders or directly from grocery and liquor stores, not in restaurants, where spending remained 20% off last July’s level.
Bigger retail shops will survive. Smaller ones will die off unless the stores are being supported by loyal patrons
NO. WE HAVE NO F*CKING MONEY TO SPEND.
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