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Breakingviews - U.S. recession signal bears clear fingerprints

Breakingviews - U.S. recession signal bears clear fingerprints

14.8.2019

Breakingviews - U.S. recession signal bears clear fingerprints

( Reuters Breakingviews ) - A U.S. recession warning from financial markets has Do...

Tom Buerkle 3 Min Read U.S. President Donald Trump stands at the top of the boarding steps for Air Force One as he arrives for travel to a nearby petrochemical plant after landing at Pittsburgh International Airport in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, U.S. August 13, 2019. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst NEW YORK (Reuters Breakingviews) - A U.S. recession warning from financial markets has Donald Trump’s fingerprints all over it. A key bond market metric turned negative for the first time since 2007 on Wednesday, sending stocks tumbling. Other economic indicators in the United States and abroad are deteriorating. The common thread linking these is the president’s trade war. The U.S. economy started the year with a good head of steam. Growth hit a three-year high of 2.9% in 2018, corporate coffers were swelling from the tax cuts the president signed into law a year earlier, and unemployment stood at the lowest level in nearly a half century. Sluggish growth overseas and a negative market reaction to the Federal Reserve’s December rate hike suggested some fragility, but virtually nobody was predicting a recession before 2021. The White House has since escalated trade tensions, with Trump twice in the past three months announcing tariff increases affecting some $500 billion of imports from China. As a result the yield on the Treasury’s benchmark 10-year note has since early May fallen by nearly a percentage point, to 1.59% Wednesday afternoon. Earlier in the day it briefly traded below the return on the Treasury’s 2-year note, something investors haven’t seen since June 2007. That spooked equity markets, with the S&P 500 Index down nearly 3% in early afternoon trading. Such a yield-curve inversion, as it’s called, has preceded each of the last five U.S. recessions. It also coincides with mounting signs of stress. U.S. business confidence has fallen below its long-term average this year, according to data compiled by Moody’s, and investment in non-residential structures fell over 10% in the second quarter. New data on Wednesday showed that China’s industrial production grew at the slowest rate in 17 years in July while Germany’s economic output shrank slightly in the second quarter. Further rate cuts appear inevitable, with interest rate futures pointing to an 81% probability that the Fed will lower rates by a quarter-point in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. That would represent a win for Trump, who has been berating Fed Chair Jay Powell for not cutting rates quickly enough. But the collateral damage of his trade policy is a massive price to pay. Breakingviews Reuters Breakingviews is the world's leading source of agenda-setting financial insight. As the Reuters brand for financial commentary, we dissect the big business and economic stories as they break around the world every day. A global team of about 30 correspondents in New York, London, Hong Kong and other major cities provides expert analysis in real time. Sign up for a free trial of our full service at Read more: Reuters Top News

American Stock is a Beautiful Scenic Line. Amazing how we elected a serial bankrupt reality TV slob for a president, what could go wrong? TrumpRecession ImpeachNow BankruptDon Time for another illegal invasion, Whose prints ? Right after Twitler got elected, Economists predicted that a recession would start in late 2019 early 2020.

A one-day loss of the market is hardly a credible sign of recession. This Bullshit is what a Trump Supporter wanted Pro tip: Should have tried to reduce the deficit the last couple of years during expansion instead of the approaching trillion dollar annual deficit thanks to stupid tax cut. Now tool box to fight coming recession is empty for fiscal stimulus. StableGenius

The sky is falling. Sell all your stocks, stash the cash under your bed and hide under a rock for awhile. They will just start another war

U.S. Futures Drop as Treasurys Flash Warning SignalU.S. stock futures tumbled and Treasury markets sent a new recession signal after weak German and Chinese economic data stoked fears of an impending global slowdown. 𝙍𝙚𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧 𝙣𝙚𝙞𝙜𝙝𝙗𝙤𝙧 𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙝𝙞𝙨 𝙟𝙤𝙗. 𝘿𝙚𝙥𝙧𝙚𝙨𝙨𝙞𝙤𝙣 𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝙮𝙤𝙪 𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚 𝙮𝙤𝙪𝙧𝙨. 𝘼𝙣𝙙 𝙧𝙚𝙘𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙞𝙨 𝙬𝙝𝙚𝙣 𝘿𝙤𝙣𝙖𝙡𝙙 𝙅. 𝙏𝙧𝙪𝙢𝙥 𝙡𝙤𝙨𝙚𝙨 𝙝𝙞𝙨. WednesdayWisdom Not winning What the Dow giveth, the Dow taketh away.

Yes 'clear fingerprints'. US Congress. Failed economic policy for 40 years. Trumped tried. Congress, beholden to corporate campaign contributors, 'kept it the same' and were no help to Trump. A failed opportunity. There is no recession. Hahahahahaha Signal? It has arrived - WAKE UP! (signals are old hat, the darn thing doesn't wait at signals anymore it just dumps - your on old school economics - wake up to the 21st century!)

Lock this liar up ! A World recession is going on,..and Trump contributed I knew he would drag down the economy. Trump is disastrous. Sometimes you eat the bar and sometimes the bar eats you. Do bears have fingerprints?

U.S. Stocks Drop as Treasurys Flash Warning SignalU.S. stocks tumbled and Treasury markets sent a new recession signal after weak German and Chinese economic data stoked fears of an impending global slowdown. Why would anyone be worried with trump at the helm this is nuts. Imma go eat a trump steak and use my tariff checks as napkins. MAGA KAGA new worries? LOL fake trade deals maybe? or how about FUNDAMENTALS, lack of QE, and (real inflation adjusted) not enough NIRP! more buybacks aren't even enough to prop up the biggest, fattest, ugliest bubble any more. got gold? So how log till they blame this on Obama?

Small fingerprints. YOU are FAKE NEWS FakeRecession Let's look at what the Democrats would do to the economy that are running for president: imagine trillions in reparations for the black community how about unlimited welfare and handouts for illegal immigrants for an unlimited amount of illegal immigrants. Yeah, that will fix it

U Guys would love to see one but it ain't going to happen The Media are fearmongers trying scare the American voters, don’t fall for this shit. Are “Breakingviews” your latest attempt to masquerade anti-Trump bile as news? Job at a record rate in the states... Remember folks this guy was bankrupt at least six, yes 6 times. 'Everything Trump touches dies'Rick Wilson.

Stocks open sharply lower on Wall Street following losses in Europe, bond market signals possible recessionJUST IN: Stocks open sharply lower on Wall Street following losses in Europe, the latest in a period of market volatility. When water fountains start charging to drink, then you know we have a problem. WednesdayWisdom TrumpRecession brace for impact.

Are you guys going to be able to keep this up for 14 or 15 months? You have fbi doj cia members of Congress and the Senate against him and his administration. Why would people in the treasury also be trying to stop him? Literally he is not a stupid man! And the economy is one of his biggest sells for a 2020 reelection!! Why would he trash that You make seton sense!!

What’s clear is your desire to be complicit in this game of deceit. It’s why the media has a rating of confidence as low as Congressional Democrats and RINOS. Way to go Don 🙄 Fake news. Ummm, more rumors, fakenews Bullshit This is nothing more than the Globalist and Wall Street fighting for the millions $$ at steak. The sooner people open their eyes the better off we will be!

Pure BS propaganda. Yellen just put the lie to you. Hint:This won't work, either, fake news.

What to watch today: Bonds flash recession signal and China blames US for Hong Kong protestsU.S. stock futures are sharply lower this morning as the 2-year Treasury yield inverted and moved higher than the 10-year yield. bonds flash recession signal? I think we are way past a flash ...ut-o LMAO!

The fearmongering.......let it fly Reuters! Breaking news!! Bla bla bla. Fake news. Hahah FakeNews all got the emails on what hoaxes to run with. Such a joke. LibRag. “Clear” and “tiny” fingerprints 'breakingviews?' you mean propagandaviews. Economy is the greatest it's been is many decades, just admit POTUS ain't playing your swamp game. So stop trying to cause a recession for the 2020 election. Vote OUT of our gov every last denocrat/liberal, they're enemies of the people

This is why you are enemy of the people. Surprise! The media can’t beat Trump any other way so it’s decided to instill fear of a fake ass recession just in time for the 2020 campaign. Jesus Christ, you’re so obvious. Dems intentionally crash a bull market to own the cons First of all there’s one indicator. People are jumping to this conclusion without real tangible facts. Even Fox Business did this AM.

Will be in a recession if the market gets down to Obama years meanwhile stay tough Mr. President Trump with China

US Treasury yields mixed as recession signal nears inversionU.S. government debt yields were mixed Wednesday morning, as global trade developments offered much-needed relief for markets. Scare campaigns I don’t think we will have a recession under trump. Though we are 3 years over due for a recession. More American jobs than ever. I don’t understand what everyone is afraid of a trade war. CNBC have become the Doom and Gloom merchants of 21st Century.

Little baby fingerprints. It is probably wrong to put all the blame on Trump...after all, ?who? lobbied for corporate tax repatriation that resulted in corporate stock buy-backs...and systemic corporate over-valuation? This is more fake news from the left. It is making me sick today! It is like a memo was sent out! The economy is the only possible way to defeat Trump! Meanwhile my husbands business is doing great, busiest summer in 5 years for our vacation rental and the town, everyone is optimistic and then all of this today!!!

FakeNews Every time the fed reserve sticks it's 2cents in. Everything was going along fine.... See you in Mar-a-Lago Good for business more money in my pocket Not to worry! He’ll blame Obama & the Fed. The Trump Recession Live! Trump tweets, the markets tank. Trump’s Tariffs...farm bankruptcy abounds. Trump’s Foreign Policy - nonexistent. Trump Recession coming to a neighborhood near you.

Wait, according to Obama, he built this economy 🥳🥳🥳

5 things to know before the stock market opens WednesdayDow set to drop; bonds flash recession signal; Chinese economic data weakens; China blames the US for Hong Kong protests; mortgage refinances surge The Dow is set to drop about 200 points Wednesday morning after key bond yields invert. Sell Sell Sell!!

Lol. There is no recession. Stop trying to meme on into being. ... meanwhile Made companies go bust now Americans turn... bet he has still made personal money There is no recession! This is another devious way to get to Trump's expulsion from his Presidency. Is the Federal Reserve crooked enough to force into the millions of American minds that a recession is coming? Conspiracy in the works? Europe in financial ruin?China freakingout?

Reuters has joined American media in Trump-bashing. This is not analysis but stupid propaganda. Trump is the first president who will not tolerate China's theft of our wealth and technology. If China would rather suffer economically than trade fairly, that's not Trump's fault. So Reuter’s is now fear mongering to help their Democrat acolytes push a narrative . Such a joke

I get the gist of it, but did I miss a smoking gun? He can now say he invented recession Our media invoking more panic folks StableGenius

well, yeah, duh It's starting.... The Fake potus is about as smart as the billion dollar loser we know he is We are NOT in a booming economy. We are in a very fragile economy bubble created by Trump's deficit spending. Trump has increased the National debt by almost 25% in just two years, and this has created a false economy. Trump's bankrupt economy will tumble. TrumpsRecession



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