Bitcoin May Soon Wake From Slumber, Derivatives Data Indicate

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"Futures markets remain a powder keg for short-term volatility with Perpetual Futures Open Interest at ~250,000 BTC- a historically elevated level," blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said in a research noteAn above-250,000 BTC open interest has coincided with volatility spikes in the past."Since April 2021, this has paired with large pivots in price action as the risk for a short or long squeeze increases, resolved in a market wide deleveraging events," Glassnode added.

Abnormally high open interest indicates excess leverage – funds borrowed to amplify returns from the trade. In such situations, the market becomes vulnerable to liquidations and resulting price turbulence. Liquidations refer to the forced closure of long or short positions by exchanges due to margin shortage. These lead to exaggerated price moves, as seen several times over the past 12 months.

Per Glassnode, bitcoin's funding rates recently dipped to negative territory. This, coupled with high open interest, suggests leverage is skewed to the bearish side. So, if bitcoin continues to move sideways, the funding payment would become a burden for shorts, and they may decide to unwind their position, leading to volatility on the higher side.

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