Better Atmospheric River Forecasts Are Giving Emergency Planners More Time to Prepare for Flooding

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Knowing when torrents of rain will strike can save property and lives

I was eating breakfast on a Monday morning at Sears Fine Food in downtown San Francisco, casually watching the local five-day weather forecast on a television screen behind the counter. A little symbol along the bottom showed a happy-looking sun for the rest of the day. Wednesday had a friendly-looking cloud and a few raindrops, and Thursday had a dark, threatening cloud with heavier drops. I knew Thursday's conditions would be much rougher than the symbol conveyed.

On the same day that the AR was slated to hit San Francisco, I was scheduled to present new insights into these storms at the 2016 American Geophysical Union meeting there. Struck by the inadequacy of the TV weather icons, I pledged to finish an intensity scale for ARs—a forecasting and communications tool that colleagues and I had been discussing for a while.

With greater preparedness, officials can lessen risk to property and lives and know how to maximize water storage. A January 2021 AR that caused heavy landslides that severed cliffside roads along California's Big Sur coast—yet did not cause a single death—shows how well officials can use the latest forecasting science to observe these storms and manage consequences.

Two days later a G-IV jet flown by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration climbed to 40,000 feet above the ocean west of Hawaii. Every 10 minutes or so, for several hours, it released dropsondes—small instruments that drift down by parachute for 20 minutes or so and measure wind speed and direction, water vapor, temperature and pressure.

On January 23 we sent the G-IV jet northwest of Hawaii to measure the now mature but slow-moving, low-pressure system, which was pumping water vapor and heat northward into the path of an incoming trough of low pressure moving quickly eastward from Japan and Siberia. The interaction would influence where the AR would form and how it would track in the next few days. CW3E's tools were indicating the storm could reach AR2 in California, raising the stakes for everyone on the coast.

Sure enough, the storm stalled as an AR3 near Big Sur and dropped more than 10 inches of rain over two days. Even more fell in the nearby Santa Lucia Mountains. The downpours caused urban flooding as well as heavy debris flows on fire-burned hillsides, destroying homes and commercial structures and severely damaging the vital Highway 1 along the coast. The road ended up being closed for months for significant repairs, disrupting transportation and the local economy.

 

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ProjectPopeye it's not hard to predict when you are the direct cause of it.

Under the atmospheric river...large amounts of precipitation and strong winds. The wind is gusting...causing the redwoods trees to sway.

I seem to recall the Weather Soothsayers predicting this Winter to be as dry for California as last year.

Polar Vortex, Bomb Cyclone, now this. Next is cumulonimbus cluster f*ck

SciRocker Wow, majestic & stunning yet so fierce and deadly...

W👀w! Gotta read full article. 👍💭

Raspir

Equitoral facts

This 2013 article still frightens me. “…creating a huge inland sea in California’s enormous Central Valley—a region at least 300 miles long and 20 miles wide. “

Just think of all the wasted water bc despite voters agreeing to spend 14 billion for water storage in 2014, not one project is completed to take advantage of all this rain.

Two months ago California weather forecasters were telling us we were going to have dry winter here, an extended drought. Glad they were wrong. Today it seems like their fear mongering again. Click bait? 4th generation Californian. We been weathering these storms for decades.

Water, Water...: Maybe elonmusk can bore some dry wells to drain rains down into the water table in California. tt:DanHenninger

The scale that estimates an AR’s strength and impact ranges from 1 (primarily beneficial) to 5 (primarily hazardous). Two factors affect the ranking: the amount of water vapor the storm is transporting horizontally through the atmosphere, and how long that transport lasts.

That is a great (and sobering) illustration.

Atmospheric weather machines are a known entity that both China and the US have.

pdeppisch considering the drought conditions throughout the region, it would be a wonderful thing if science would also help plan how to maximize capturing this river in the reservoirs for later use. And future atmospheric rivers as well.

Sry that's my fault caution. Mud slides but yall need to stop watering your grass in the desert lol

After the chemtrails I'm just waiting for the 'natural catastrophe' or the 'crisis' in the news. Of course this is all just coincidence in the Chemtrails are absolutely benign or don't exist whichever you choose. One should never question the Narrative of the government no lies.

Look up in the sky chemtrails. I live in California about a week ago the whole sky was lit up with chemtrails and now suddenly we have an 'atmospheric river' running through California. Interesting!

Cool. When do we weaponize it?

KayKosmos Science is so cool.

Fancy atmospheric rivers in forecasts? All you need to know is that out in Cali they're going to have some warm weather, gang wars and some very overpriced real estate, and up in pacific northwest, some very very tall trees.

Interesting

Only defined 10 years ago? The term Pineapple Express was coined in 1952 based on atmospheric observations of storms stretching from Hawaii to the west coast. This is more evidence that most science writers are idiots.

LOL, they can't predict weather accurately from day to day, let alone storm behavior.

Cause by George Bush inventing the SUV, no doubt.

They can grow to 2,000 miles long, 500 miles wide and two miles deep by the time they strike the western coasts of continents. An atmospheric river transports enough water vapor to equal 25 times the flow rate of the Mississippi River where it pours into the Gulf of Mexico. (2/2)

GIS, doplar radar, etc. Is evolving & will prove to be miracle tools in the future...

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