Bernie Sanders Is The Front-Runner

poll released on Friday, he was in third with 17 percent, down 3 points from Morning Consult’s pre-debate poll. It’s not necessarily clear that only Biden will benefit from a Bloomberg stumble, but it certainly holds good news for him at this point, especially if he holds onto his second place finish in Nevada.

Notably, the odds that no one wins a majority of pledged delegates fell by 1.5 points, too, meaning that is no longer the single most likely outcome in our forecast. That voting will end without anyone winning a pledged-delegate majority is still the second most likely outcome in our forecast after a Sanders win, but Sanders’s decisive victory in Nevada helped him put a little distance between himself and that more chaotic scenario. And remember, there are also plenty of eventualities in which Sanders wins the nomination with only aof pledged delegates — his chances of winning the most delegates , rose from 61 percent before Nevada to 69 percent after.

The model now also sees Sanders as more likely to win in the two most delegate-rich Super Tuesday states:

FiveThirtyEight Bye Bye Democrat party. No one but Trump.

FiveThirtyEight Americans worth their salt, don’t want a communist.

FiveThirtyEight Feelin that Bern!!!!🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

FiveThirtyEight He won't be the front runner much longer if the Democratic Party Establishment has its way--even if he is. Gotta protect the useless wealthy and keep that gravy train rolling.

FiveThirtyEight BreadlineBernie

FiveThirtyEight Extremely fluid for second place maybe....

FiveThirtyEight Bernie you need to watch your party don’t want you to win the Democrats are freaking out. Oooh 😮 no it can’t be Bernie. That’s not who we picked. Oooh 😮 nooooooo! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸Trump

FiveThirtyEight Hmmmmm America will never be a socialist country!

FiveThirtyEight ND that is shocking unfortunately as corporates will not like him As high chance of trump to get reelected

FiveThirtyEight that will please realDonaldTrump

FiveThirtyEight Still hoping for Biden/Warren. VoteBlueNoMatterWho

FiveThirtyEight Uh, Bernie Sanders has been the front runner since he won Iowa lol, so the race is about as fluid as the solid rocket boosters on his campaign.

FiveThirtyEight Let's get behind Bernie and celebrate his run for the presidency with the Put A Bern On It! Decal at

FiveThirtyEight BIDEN 2020 We need a moderate to beat Trump

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