On January 29, 2020, Jay Powell strode briskly to the podium to begin the first press conference of his third year as chair of the Federal Reserve. He flipped open a white binder, looked up briefly to welcome the assembled reporters, and then looked down to read his prepared statement. His demeanor was low-key, almost somber. But his message was upbeat: The U.S.
In passing, he noted "uncertainties" affecting the economic outlook, "including those posed by the new coronavirus.". A follow-up question on the virus, from Donna Borak of CNN, did not come until 21 minutes into the 54-minute press conference. At that point, only a few cases had been reported outside China. The virus, Powell cautiously acknowledged, was "a very serious issue" that could cause "some disruption to activity in China and possibly globally.
Between the January 29 and March 3 press conferences, the virus had evolved from a localized problem to an incipient global crisis. Reported cases of the disease that would become known as COVID-19 had risen from fewer than 10,000, almost all in China, to more than 90,000 worldwide. Italy had quarantined towns in its Lombardy region and Iran had reported a surge of infections. In the United States, the first virus death was reported on February 29—a man in his 50s, near Seattle. U.S.
Meanwhile, virus fears triggered the worst week in U.S. financial markets since the 2007–2009 financial crisis, signaling trouble ahead for the economy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had hit a record high earlier in the month, plunged more than 12 percent during the week ending February 28. In March the turmoil spread to bond markets. Sellers of even ultrasafe U.S. Treasury securities had difficulty finding buyers, who showed little interest in holding anything other than cash.
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