Bank of Canada to stay put for now, but 2020 rate cut in play: Reuters poll

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The Bank of Canada will hold interest rates at 1.75% on Wednesday, according to ...

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BENGALURU (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada will hold interest rates at 1.75% on Wednesday, according to most economists polled by Reuters, although a significant minority expects at least one rate cut by year-end.

Those prospects have flipped back and forth in monthly polls since October as optimism around the Canadian economy has see-sawed. While more economists expect a 2020 rate cut than in January, there were even more in December.“The labour market is starting to slow down, consumer spending is definitely not there, business investment is clearly disappointing and exports outside energy are not rising in any significant way,” said Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist at CIBC Capital Markets.

But with financial markets hammered by fears over the spread of the coronavirus and swathes of Asia now expected to take a direct economic hit from factory shutdowns, travel restrictions and less consumer spending, that may look optimistic.“The shutdown of large sections of the Canadian rail system following First Nations protests and blockades will be a larger drag on economic activity than the coronavirus,” said Sebastien Lavoie, chief economist at Laurentian Bank.

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Clearly the banks see things getting worse if their holding off on the cut.

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