Empty supermarket shelves in Hong Kong. Photo: Miguel Candela/Echoes Wire/Barcroft Media via Getty Images With large swaths of China shut down and many other countries on edge, I spoke with business columnist Josh Barro about the economic misery that the coronavirus has inflicted on top of its death toll — and whether it’s about to spread Westward.
Josh: I’m not an epidemiologist, and neither are the vast majority of the market participants who are trying to figure out the likely economic impacts of coronavirus, and neither is Minerd. But my baseline assumption in these situations is that, because there is a major financial reward for getting the analyses right and penalty for getting them wrong, the market is providing the best aggregation of the available information.
Ben: So it’s not possible, in your view, that we could see worsening economic effects as a sort of delayed reaction to what has already happened in China, given the global interconnectedness of everything in 2020? In some ways this is analogous to the effects of the trade war. Like coronavirus, the trade war has disrupted trade with China and has been negative for U.S. firms, especially those with a lot of exposure to the China market. But the overall effect on the U.S. economy hasn’t been large, because not all China trade got shut down, some trade just shifted to other suppliers, and most of the U.S. economy is either services or production for our own domestic consumption.
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