Are COVID surges becoming more predictable? New Omicron variants offer a hint

“We’re definitely entering a resurgence in South Africa, and it seems to be driven entirely by BA.4 and BA.5,” says Penny Moore, a virologist at the University of the Witwatersrand in Johannesburg, South Africa, whose team is studying the variants. “We’re seeing crazy numbers of infections. Just within my lab, I have six people off sick.”

On the basis of the growth in BA.4 and BA.5 case numbers in South Africa — which now average nearly 5,000 per day, from a low of around 1,200 in March — de Oliveira’s team estimates that the variants are spreading slightly faster than the. The study was posted on the medRxiv preprint server and has not yet been peer reviewed.

Both are closely related to BA.2 — although exactly how is not clear, Bloom adds . BA.4 and BA.5 both carry a key mutation called F486V in their spike proteins — the viral protein responsible for infection and the prime target of immune responses. Bloom’s team has previously found that this mutation could help variants to dodge virus-blocking antibodies.Further studies suggest that BA.4 and BA.5 are growing, at least in part, because of their ability to evade immune responses.

Some parts of North America are also seeing the rise of other Omicron sub-lineages that have spike-protein mutations in some of the same places as in BA.4 and BA.5. One such variant — called BA.2.12.1 — also has the capacity to evade antibodies triggered by a previous Omicron infection and vaccination, according to the studyThe emergence of these strains suggests that the Omicron lineage is continuing to make gains by eroding immunity, says Ho.

Well, you make it 'predictable'. Or should I say TheScience™️ (pr)edicts? It is called planned economy.

Why is it always South Africa? Why?

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