Anticipating the Next Wave Of Retail Bankruptcies

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Amid the current lull in restructurings, lenders watch for warning signs after stimulus funds dry up and the pandemic persists.

After the rush of bankruptcy filings last summer in the earlier phase of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, retail watchers had feared another wave in 2021.

Just about a dozen of those have involved U.S. retail bankruptcies since the start of the year to mid-April, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. But if companies hit trouble accessing financing to pay vendors or to keep their operations on pace, it could set off a cascade effect, experts said.

Lenders are also continuing to monitor covenants to ensure that the businesses are complying with their terms, bankruptcy watchers said. Lines of credit, for instance, are gauged based on accounts receivable, which if they decline, can jeopardize the line of credit and affect a company’s ability to borrow.

Ongoing stimulus funding through landmark measures including the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, which also boosted the Paycheck Protection Program meant to provide forgivable loans to companies, have helped keep some retailers afloat.

 

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