Analyst Cuts 2020 Box Office Estimate, Says Cinemas Will Reopen in September 'at the Earliest'

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U.S. cinemas are likely to reopen in September 'at the earliest,' MKM Partners analyst Eric Handler wrote in a report, in which he reduced his 2020 box office estimate to a 'near-70 percent decline.' Details:

MKM Partners' Eric Handler now expects a"near-70 percent decline compared to our prior view for a 55 percent-60 percent decrease" for the year.

"The near-term outlook for exhibition related stocks remains extremely clouded given the uncertainty about when theaters will be able to re-open with new Hollywood content," he wrote. "We place a low likelihood ofopening on Aug. 12 given a rising number of COVID-19 cases in key areas, such as California, Texas and Florida, along with the slowed re-opening of the New York City economy.

Internationally, the analyst said that "while Europe appears to be in a better position than the U.S. regarding the pandemic, we doubt the region will have any meaningful new content to show at re-opened theaters until North America is back on line." As a result, he sees Europe's box office results mirroring the domestic performance. "Latin America, with its high level of COVID-19 cases seems to be further behind an eventual North American re-opening," he added.

"Beyond this year, we do believe there is pent up demand for consumers to get out of their houses for entertainment although the ramp up in attendance will likely be gradual," he concluded. "We project domestic box office revenue of $9.1 billion in 2021 and a 'back to normal' level of $11.5 billion in 2022."

 

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