Election 2020: Why Early Vote Trends Can't Tell You Who Will Win - Cnnpolitics

Election 2020: Why Early Vote Trends Can't Tell You Who Will Win - Cnnpolitics

Analysis: Why early vote trends can't tell you who will win

You should be very careful trying to translate early and absentee voting statistics into trying to understand whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden is going to win the presidential race, writes Harry Enten

10/17/2020 10:14:00 PM

You should be very careful trying to translate early and absentee voting statistics into trying to understand whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden is going to win the presidential race, writes Harry Enten

You've seen the pictures of early voting lines out the door. You may have read the stats of the high number of voters requesting absentee ballots. All of this is certainly consistent with the long standing belief of record turnout in 2020.

Still, you should be very careful trying to translate early and absentee voting statistics into trying to understand whether President Donald Trump or former Vice President Joe Biden is going to win the presidential race. We know from the polls that a record number of people will probably be casting a ballot before Election Day this year.The problem is that the same polls indicate that there will be a massive difference between the percentage of Biden and Trump supporters who will vote early. Biden supporters are much likely to cast an early ballot. We see this well in an ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted late last month. Biden was ahead of Trump by 36 points among those voting before Election Day, while Trump was up by 19 points among those who said they'd vote on Election Day. Read MoreAnd indeed, nothing we're witnessing in the early vote so far suggests that the polls are off. Democrats are voting early at a much higher level than Republicans. View Trump and Biden head-to-head polling The issue is that we really don't know the extent to which the early vote will be more Democratic-leaning than the overall tally. There's no history of early voting during a pandemic. Moreover, just because we know the party affiliation of the voters returning ballots in some states doesn't mean we know they're voting for. More on Voting

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New Zealand's Jacinda Ardern appears headed for landslide win and second termPrime Minister Jacinda Ardern appears headed for a landslide win and a second term in office during early vote counting in New Zealand’s election I can see why. She’s a true leader - kept COVID out She’s a true leader - kept COVID out

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Avalanche of early votes is transforming the 2020 electionMore than 17 million Americans have already cast ballots in the 2020 election, a record-shattering avalanche of early votes driven both by Democratic enthusiasm and a pandemic that has transformed the way the nation votes. The total represents 12% of all the votes cast in the 2016 presidential election Moo Moo voted. Now im wandering sideways yesterday for today all day everyday! 🤞

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North Carolina groups mobilize Black and Latino voters as early voting beginsGroups in North Carolina are racing to meet Latino and Black voters in their neighborhoods and online, informing them of what pandemic voting looks like and the importance of down-ballot races to effect change in their communities.

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