There’s a utility to President Trump’s frequent election-year claims that he can get Republicans elected to office. If Republican legislators believe that he can make or break their political futures, they’ll be more likely to stand with Trump in times of turbulence and support his policy initiatives. It’s clearly the case that concern about how Trump’s political base would view the situation prompted nearly every Republican legislator to oppose the president’s impeachment.
Trump’s endorsements may “have done little to elicit engagement from voters on the Republican side, all the while creating a rallying effect around opposing candidates and increasing engagement among Democratic voters,” they conclude. “The story then from these findings is that presidential endorsements in 2018 indicated presidential backlash rather than presidential coattails.”a presidential endorsement from an unpopular president,” they write.
If we zoom in on those 16 contests, you can see how the Trump endorsement affected the outcome according to the research. Looking at all three data points in one static graphic, you can see how the red and blue dots flip: In the estimated shares without endorsements, the red dots are to the right of the blue dots, meaning the Republican got a larger share of the vote. In the actual results, though, the red dots have moved to the left of the blue dots — a loss.
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