Analysis: Putin and Biden are caught in a high-stakes gamble over Ukraine

It is a very bad idea -- for all concerned. Yet the drumbeat towards another war in Ukraine is echoing and amplifying itself, taking on a life of its own, in a huge, high-risk maneuver by either the Biden administration or Moscow, or both.

Europe, Ukraine-Russia: Putin And Biden Are Caught İn A High-Stakes Gamble - Cnn

1/18/2022 3:53:00 PM

The drumbeat towards another war in Ukraine is amplifying itself, taking on a life of its own, in a huge, high-risk maneuver by either the Biden administration or Moscow, or both | Analysis by International Security Editor Nick Paton Walsh

It is a very bad idea -- for all concerned. Yet the drumbeat towards another war in Ukraine is echoing and amplifying itself, taking on a life of its own, in a huge, high-risk maneuver by either the Biden administration or Moscow, or both.

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Faint echoes of the machinations that lead to WW I. Fortunately, Ukraine's NATO neighbors are not mobilizing their armies. joebiden how your administration give this guy a visa? Reports need to start asking questions. Do your reporting Don’t underestimate Biden’s ability to turn this into a disaster. International Security Editor 🤣🤣🤣 The drumbeat is being played by the US. As a matter of fact the US is begging for it. A peace of advice: don't annoy the bear or somebody will get hurt real bad.

Core Issues for Putin: Nato Expansion Feels Lonely Prefers Ukraine in Russian orbit Instead why not counter offer full EU merger to Russia Be Agile Think Ahead Dont stick to old worn out Concepts Putin wants to take over Ukraine and has wanted to do so for years. This article implies that by warning Putin not to invade, Biden is goading him to act. Ludicrous. Threats should not be met with silence. Standing up to a bully doesn’t make it your fault when they attack.

NO a la injerencia Rusa en Cuba 🤬 SenatorSinema & SenJoeManchin are using a congressional custom as an excuse for not protecting democracy! Republican $ has bought them off. FOLLOW THE $$$ Am I the only one getting fed up with hearing about this crack pot? He needs to be dealt with. I made 50k with coinmamba11

Putin wants his tRump Back

65 percent of Americans think Biden isn't doing enough to address record-high inflationInflation levels have risen by 7 percent in the last 12 months, marking a 40-year high for the country. What a Joke!!! You try working with this This is not accurate. Lesion levels have not written by 7%. Inflation levels have risen to 7%. Whoever wrote this article should be taken off of writing duties and learn to state facts correctly.

The world know how weak biden is. Our global map is now up for grabs. This would never happen under Trump. Trump was about peace. It's a massive risc to the entire European Union what have been happening. It cab turn into a massive problem without a good diplomacy action immediately. nonsense. escalate the situation. and do you believe stop regularly reading the news and devouring information garbage. take a better look at my cats, and do something to help -with a gift, food, donat.

.. You are aware that Russia already occupies the eastern third of Ukraine right? There won’t be any fighting. Stupid Wars! No War Please!!!

Biden to meet virtually with Japan's Kishida Fumio FridayThe White House says the meeting will be to 'further deepen ties between our governments, economies, and our people,' and will 'highlight the strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance.' Virtual meetings are a bigger joke than meetings in general.

President Biden, First Lady volunteer at Philabundance to pay tribute ahead of MLK DayThe President and the first lady returned to Philabundance again as a tribute to Martin Luther King Jr. ahead of the MLK Day since they recognize hunger in America as one of the continued issues impacting children and families. Photo op Wow, he looks quite alert. Does he assume civil rights and hunger are the same thing I'm offended. Why does he volunteer for hunger relief on MLK Day?

Biden to continue push for voting rights bill as he honors King's legacyU.S. President Joe Biden traveled to Philadelphia on Sunday to honor the legacy of slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King Jr., as he continues to press for voting rights legislation and concerted action to combat rising extremism. Biden's visit to the 'City of Brotherly Love' comes hours after an FBI hostage rescue team stormed a synagogue in Colleyville, Texas, to free three hostages after a more than 10-hour standoff. Biden and first lady Jill Biden are volunteering at Philabundance, a hunger relief organization in Philadelphia, to mark Monday's Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. This is what Republican politicians voted against Give it up dude, it's about as useful as it is likely to pass. Go find something useful. If there's so many 'right wing extremist threatening our democracy', then why don't they go out and arrest them? Where are all of them? LOL.

Biden at year one: Not enough focus on inflation leaves many frustratedGuidance on COVID-19 is seen as confusing, and it weighs on his ratings. Honestly this is the first time am pleased with a trading Platform. I Guarantee you if you looking for A Good and Reliable Trading Platform contact victor_griffin_ he will turn $3000 to 30,500 within 3-6 Days of Trading. 🚨 This was the worst crime ever!!! KUMBAYA ?!? 🇺🇲🇺🇲🇺🇲 POTUS SenatorSinema Sen_JoeManchin VotingRightsAct USHistory Dear Lord White Baby Jesus... 🙏 God Bless President Biden POTUS !!! THANKS SPEAKER PELOSI SpeakerPelosi !!! THANKS CHUCK SenSchumer !!! God Bless Anthony Fauci 🙏 BuildBackBetter VotingRightsAct USHistory 🇺🇲 🇺🇲 🇺🇲

Mike Lindell claims Trump's election loss to Biden will be 'corrected' in 'God's timing'The MyPillow founder made the remarks at Trump's Arizona rally, where many speakers touted conspiracy theories about the 2020 election. He's not relevant. God only gets one vote like everyone else. What nuts.

(CNN)It is a very bad idea -- for all concerned. Yet the drumbeat towards another war in Ukraine is amplifying itself, taking on a life of its own, in a huge, high-risk maneuver by either the Biden administration or Moscow, or both."I really don't know where this all came from," is a phrase I have heard Western officials sigh multiple times over the past months. Yes, Russia's military is on the move, and massing in perhaps larger numbers than in the other years when we have seen similar posturing. Yes, a source familiar with the intelligence tells me there are indications that Russian officials are not just theorizing about an invasion but are actually working out how they might enact one, if ordered to do so.Read MoreBut some of their positions are more than a hundred miles from Ukraine's border. And the reasons why Russia really wouldn't want to occupy any more of its neighbor's territory are the same as they have ever been.Tensions are high on Ukraine's border with Russia. Here's what you need to knowFirstly, this would not be the invasion of Ukraine, but the re-invasion. Ukraine has already been invaded twice, even if Moscow pretended that the"little green men" who took Crimea weren't theirs, and that the"concerned locals" who swarmed Donbas had purchased all their armored personnel carriers in army surplus stores. Part of Russia's problem is that these were incomplete moves, carried out quickly and without a full plan for the future. Renewed Russian action could finish what they left undone and bring longer term benefits to Moscow. But their incompleteness is also a daily reminder that such conflicts are full of unknown unknowns which disrupt plans.De facto invasionRussia's critics and admirers alike are bound by a rare unity when they see the Kremlin's every action as purposeful, and guileful. But that is rarely the case. After it barged into Crimea in 2014, Moscow was left without a land corridor linking the peninsula to the Russian motherland, and only finished in 2018 a thin bridge across the Kerch Strait for utilities and supplies. Its de facto invasion of Donbas ended in 2015, yet Russia still props up a chaotic and messy separatist movement there. This rump of mercenaries and outliers come at a cost, with little benefit; Moscow is unlikely to profit from the area, since it is not the industrial heartland it once was.The arguments that the Kremlin needs a land bridge to Crimea and a more certain status for Donbas are often central to explanations for why it may invade Ukraine a third time in eight years. But most military options would come at extraordinary cost.Putin presents a profound threat to peace in Europe as 'drumbeat of war' sounds on Russia-Ukraine borderAt its most minor, Russian action could involve"normalizing" the country's grip on the Donbas region by sending in Russian troops to lock down their control of the area, or even to slightly widen its buffer zone against the rest of Ukraine. There could be benefits from that, but it would likely trigger costly sanctions and formalize Moscow's expensive position as the battered region's sponsor.Other analysts suggest that a narrow land corridor along the Azov Sea, through the city of Mariupol, would reduce the cost of maintaining energy and water supplies to Crimea, and could be easily achieved through an amphibious landing on the Azov Sea coast. Yet a thin strip of land running along the shoreline would be hard to defend and less profitable as a commercial supply route if it was constantly at risk of attack from Ukrainian forces.The next option passed around the cottage industry of Ukraine war-gaming is a wider invasion. Under this scenario, Russia might push all the way up to the Dnieper River, taking Kharkiv, Poltava and even breathing down the neck of the capital Kyiv. But this is where the theorizing gets a bit silly. I heard one reputable analyst speculate about the invasion of all of Ukraine. ALL of it. A country slightly larger than France, from Luhansk in the East to Lviv in the West. That's more than a 16-hour drive for one of Russia's newest tanks -- running flat out, at its highest known speed -- with nobody in its way, and no stops to refuel.Sanctions riskThe idea of occupying a large area of Ukraine may have seemed possible in 2014, but after seven years of war, Ukraine is noticeably short on nostalgia for its former Soviet neighbor. An occupation would be bloody, cost many Russian lives, require hundreds of thousands of Russian troops, and likely be an embarrassing reminder to the Kremlin, as its forces become overstretched, of how decrepit its military was just over a decade ago, before their swift modernization. Sanctions would also damage, if not cripple, the Europe-facing parts of Russia's economy.First on CNN: US intelligence indicates Russia preparing operation to justify invasion of UkraineEven a small invasion is really a bad idea for Moscow. Proponents of how likely an invasion is often remark that Putin is not a rational actor, arguing that he is prone to unpredictable sweeping moves. They note that, as a superannuated autocrat without any checks, balances, or real elections to worry about, he is free to decide anything, at any hour. The Kremlin chief's decision-making has long been deliberately opaque. And after 21 years at the helm and nearly two years in a Covid-19 isolation bubble, where his interactions are significantly limited, it is possible to imagine the information he is getting is far from balanced.Which is why the Biden administration's decision to amplify the likelihood of an invasion is so intensely risky. Sounding the alarmThere are clear warning signs -- and possibly starker undisclosed intelligence -- to support the possibility of an attack. Perhaps ensuring your allies are aware and ready for it is better than staying silent and seeming unprepared.But by sounding the alarm so loudly, the White House has given Putin a choice: Act now, or make it seem like you gave in to pressure from the West. And surely that is something that would be tough for the Russian leader, who believes his country was starkly humiliated at the end of the Soviet Union, to take? Forcing him to make such a choice cannot have seemed the best option to CIA head and former US ambassador to Moscow, Bill Burns, or the other students of Russia policy in the Biden White House. You have to hope they know something everyone else does not. Have they calculated -- or learned -- that Putin simply cannot afford to invade Ukraine again? Or have they determined that the invasion is inevitable? Putin's big miscalculationIf there is any doubt, this US operation to raise awareness of the risk could tip the scales and force Russia to do something it probably knows will end badly.And so now -- given the non-starters Russia requested at its talks with the US in Geneva and the apparent stalling, if not collapse, of those negotiations -- Ukraine is stuck, facing an appalling eight week-wait while the ice remains hard enough to allow tanks to roll across the Russian border. After that the mud will set in, and along with it another summer of mild tension.Perhaps the long-term gain of these months of febrile speculation and shrill panic will be judged to be shoring up NATO and Europe against the threat of Russia, and proving to Moscow that the costs of any further adventurism would be unpalatable, or at least met with a united front. Perhaps the Biden administration simply wanted to show Russia that the US is back in Europe, reversing the Trump years' cosiness with Moscow.But Ukraine, which has already endured the loss of more than 10,000 people in this war, has found itself at the center of a high-stakes game of brinkmanship, with the US-Russia relationship front and center. People are once more paying attention to its plight, but it risks looking like an afterthought, trapped in the middle as Washington and Moscow duke it out.Putin has the global attention and US engagement he perhaps craves. But with the chips laid down, all in, this huge diplomatic gamble risks a major land war in Europe.