After winter storms, California can expect a late start to the wildfire season

A series of late-season winter storms has filled reservoirs, boosted snowpack and left forecasters anticipating a late start to California’s wildfire season. And while the odds are also tilting toward a milder than normal fire season overall, that outlook could change by July, said National Interagency Fire Center meteorologist Jonathan O’Brien.

Some of the variables that can make or break a fire season are unpredictable. For instance, in 2022, conditions were dry and toasty, but the state benefited from some well-timed rainfall events that tempered fire activity. In 2020, a late-summer dry lightning burst sparked scores of fires, turning a so-so season into the state’s worst on record. “These wild cards can always come up,” said John Abatzoglou, professor of climatology at UC Merced.

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