THE EMPTY freeways of Los Angeles look like a scene from a disaster movie. For many Hollywood bosses, that is how things feel. With one in three people in the world subject to social-distancing rules, box-office takings in 2020 have collapsed. Television is bracing for revenue-starved advertisers to rein in spending. Shooting on productions slated for 2021 has ceased, portending an unpleasant sequel next year.
The small screen has its own problems. Nielsen, a research company, finds that in past lockdowns, such as during Hurricane Harvey, time spent in front of the TV rose by up to 60%. In parts of Italy quarantine boosted TV ratings, according to Auditel, another research firm. Yet this may not help networks. For one thing, they too face a drought of content.
But an uptick in streaming revenue may not offset the losses from other businesses. Netflix, which doesn’t have any, is running out of new eyeballs to attract in the West; nearly half of American households already subscribe. Keeping those it has may require serving up new shows—which it cannot produce. Lockdowns are unlikely to bring in new viewers streaming in poorer countries where streaming remains a luxury, especially as mass joblessness looms.
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