A Shortened MLB Season Favors The Underdogs — But An Expanded Playoff Helps The Favorites

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When and if the Major League Baseball season begins, it may come with a completely different playoff format.

Once teams made the playoffs in this different format, how did they do? In these simulations, the Houston Astros were the big winner, gaining 16 World Series titles over a short season with a standard 10-team playoff. The Padres saw 12 additional titles, while the Philadelphia Phillies added nine, and the A’s, Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks gained seven each.

No team advanced less often to an expanded postseason, but some did win fewer World Series. The St. Louis Cardinals lost 24 titles per 1,000 simulations, while the Twins and Angels saw 15 fewer titles each, and the Dodgers dropped eight. But the Dodgers still dominated the simulated title totals, with 312 championships in the 1,000 simulations.

The final comparison was between the standard 162-game season and the shortened season with a 14-team playoff format. The Indians, Cubs, White Sox, Padres, Blue Jays, Mets and A’s gained the most playoff berths, with the Boston Red Sox also enjoying a 20 percentage point jump in playoff berths.

 

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Won’t be baseball till 2021.

But David Fletcher?

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