A Hot, Deadly Summer Is Coming With Frequent Blackouts

“War and sanctions are disrupting supply and demand, and that’s coupled with extreme weather and an economic rebound from Covid boosting power demand,” said Shantanu Jaiswal, a BloombergNEF analyst. “The confluence of so many factors is quite unique. I can’t recall the last time they all happened together.”Without power, human welfare will be under duress. Poverty, age and proximity to the equator will increase the likelihood of illness and death from unrelenting temperatures.

“You’ll be facing a supply scare every time there’s clouds or storms or a wind drought for a week,” Whitworth said. “We really expect these problems to get worse in the next five years.” On the 15-state grid operated by the Midcontinent Independent System Operator , consumers in 11 states are at risk of outages. MISO, which serves about 42 million people, projected it has “insufficient” power generation to meet the highest demand periods this summer, especially in its Midwest states. The grid has never before given a warning of this kind ahead of the start of summer demand.

“The US is experiencing more outages globally than any other industrialized nation,” she said. “About 70% of our grid is nearing end of life.”The epicenter of the outages so far has been South and Southeast Asia, where brutal heat waves have put air conditioners on full blast. Blackouts have been basically nationwide in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Myanmar, home to a combined 300 million people.

In China, where coal shortages led to widespread power curtailments last year, officials have promised to keep the lights on in 2022 and have pressed coal miners to boost output to a record. Even so, industry officials have warned that the power situation will be tight this summer in the country’s heavily industrialized south, which is far from inland mining hubs and therefore more reliant on expensive foreign coal and gas.

If Russia were to cut off natural gas supplies to the region, that could be enough to trigger rolling blackouts in some countries, said Fabian Ronningen, a power markets analyst for Rystad Energy.

Sooo… a summer. Also, the blackouts ONLY happen in liberal cities and countries.

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