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Covid-19 May Have Started Spreading As Early As October 2019 In China, U.K.-Led Study Suggests

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Updated Jun 25, 2021, 07:20am EDT

Topline

The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 may have started spreading in China as early as October 2019—two months before the first official case was identified in the city of Wuhan—a new study suggests, adding to previous reports which suggest the deadly virus may have been silently spreading a few months before it was detected by scientists.

Key Facts

A peer-reviewed paper published by researchers from the U.K.’s University of Kent and the Czech Academy of Sciences estimates that the SARS-CoV2 virus first appeared between early October to mid-November 2019.

The scientists came to this conclusion by using the optimal linear estimator method which analysed the interval between the first officially reported case in five countries and compared that with the date those cases actually originated.

The study suggests that November 17, 2019, is the most likely date for the virus’ emergence in China and adds that it had probably already spread globally by January 2020—before China began locking down the city of Wuhan.

The first official Covid-19 case was detected in December 2019 and it was linked to Wuhan’s Huanan seafood market, however, the study notes that some early cases had no known connection with the market which implies that the virus was already circulating before that.

Key Background

This is not the first instance where a study has suggested that the virus may have been circulating earlier than December 2019. In March, the World Health Organization and China published a joint study that acknowledged that sporadic infections may have happened before the first case was detected in Wuhan. Another study published by scientists from University College London had contended that the virus likely first emerged in October 2019 and had begun rapidly spreading around the world by December that year. Earlier this week, researcher Jesse Bloom published a preprint noting that he had recovered genomic sequencing data of the virus from early cases, which had been removed from the U.S. government’s database. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) confirmed that the samples had been deleted at the request of Chinese investigators, who said they would be updated and submitted to another archive. This sparked further speculation that China was trying to cover up the origins of the pandemic.

Tangent

The origin of the Covid-19 outbreak is still unclear as scientists, the World Health Organisation (WHO), and several world leaders push for a new, more thorough investigation into how it emerged. Several experts, including America’s top infectious disease official Dr. Anthony Fauci, believe that the virus likely jumped from bats to humans through an intermediate animal host. However, another theory that posits the virus leaked from a lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology—initially pushed by fringe groups—has seen more mainstream interest. Last month, President Joe Biden ordered U.S. intelligence agencies to examine the origin of the pandemic. According to the White House, U.S. intelligence agencies have two prevailing theories at the moment with branches believing that it was transmitted from animals, while another branch believes it came from a lab at the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which does research work on bat viruses. The Chinese government, however, has tried to push its own theory that the virus was imported into the country through frozen food.

Further Reading

First COVID-19 case could have emerged in China in Oct 2019 - study (Reuters)

Deleted coronavirus genome sequences trigger scientific intrigue (Nature)

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