Box Office: Theaters Will Attempt A Comeback Amid A Summer Of Broken Windows

Almost every major film opening this summer will have something resembling a compromised theatrical window.

On the eve of the first “big” movie of the summer, Spiral: From the Book of Saw, opening theatrically, Disney has announced that Jungle Cruise will be debuting July 30 both theatrically and on Disney+ via “Premier Access” (via a one-time $30 lease). The Dwayne Johnson/Emily Blunt adventure comedy is based upon the famous Disney theme park ride. Under normal circumstances, it would likely be Disney’s first new live-action franchise (outside of the MCU) since Pirates of the Caribbean in 2003 and National Treasure in 2004. It was also supposed to be Disney’s first big “only in theaters” offering since Onward in March of 2020, but that’s not happening.

I understand the decision, as it accounts for uncertain overseas conditions and the possibility of another Covid surge anywhere in the world while still allowing the film to open as scheduled. As with the Warner Bros/HBO Max deal, it offers a cushion to justify putting out a finished product into the world. We’ll see if they release Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings as “theaters only” over Labor Day, but that film going out sans Disney+ (as well as No Time to Die finally opening) would be an unofficial sign that normalcy is returning. The move for a film I (optimistically?) pegged as a likely summer breakout typifies the season as a whole.

Pretty much every major film opening this summer will have something resembling a compromised theatrical window. The Warner Bros. releases (Those Who Wish Me Dead, The Conjuring: The Devil Made Me Do It, In the Heights, Space Jam: A New Legacy, The Suicide Squad and Reminiscence) will play concurrently (for the first 30 days of theatrical release) in theaters and on HBO Max. The Disney summer flicks (Cruella, Black Widow and Jungle Cruise) are all “in theaters with a Disney+ premier access,” while Pixar’s Luca is only in theaters for territories without Disney+.  Due to existing post-theatrical contracts with HBO, Fox’s Free Guy will (as of now) open only in theaters on August 13.

_{Update: We just got word that Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings and Free Guy will get 45-day exclusive theatrical runs. So it seems that 45 days is the new 90 days.}

The Universal releases (Spirit Untamed, F9, The Forever Purge, Old and possibly MGM’s Candyman) will debut on PVOD in as little as 17 days after its domestic theatrical opening day or (if any of them open above $50 million) 31 days. Likewise for the Focus Features offerings like Profile (a “screenlife” thriller opening tomorrow), Edgar Wright’s music documentary The Sparks Bros. and Matt Damon’s legal drama Stillwater. Paramount’s A Quiet Place part II, Snake Eyes and Paw Patrol will go to Paramount+ in 45 days. That has caused some consternation with John Krasinski and Emily Blunt reportedly trying to renegotiate their box office-specific back-end deals in light of a shorter-than-anticipated theatrical exclusivity window.

By virtue of not having an A-level streaming platform, having instead taken the payday from Netflix for the first post-theatrical pay window and Disney for the second, Sony’s Peter Rabbit: The Runaway will presumably get a conventional theatrical run when it opens on June 18. Ditto for Hotel Transylvania: Transformania and sequels to both Don’t Breathe and Escape Room. Likewise, Lionsgate’s three summer releases, Spiral, The Hitman’s Wife’s Bodyguard and The Protege (all co-starring Samuel L. Jackson), will get conventional theatrical windows along with (presumably) A24’s The Green Knight. So not only will this summer’s theatrical revenue be graded on a Covid curve, but also due to almost every major release having a compromised theatrical window.

While Hotel Transylvania 4 could break big (even without Adam Sandler reprising), the majority of the presumed summer biggies will play in theaters while being available at home either concurrently or unusually soon after. That Godzilla Vs. Kong and Wrath of Man played as well as hoped under normal circumstances is cause for optimism. That Wonder Woman 1984 ($166 million) and Raya and the Last Dragon ($106 million) earned maybe 15-25% of what they might have is cause for pessimism. That Tom & Jerry ($108 million on an $80 million budget) and Mortal Kombat ($73 million and counting on a $55 million budget) are only disappointments by usual, pre-Covid standards is somewhere in between.

This could mean that the summer’s upcoming “biggies” can expect business-as-usual domestic box office. Maybe Spiral will open closer to Saw 3-D ($22.6 million in 2010) than Jigsaw ($16.6 million in 2017), although either would qualify as a success. Maybe A Quiet Place part II will capture a Fri-Sun Memorial Day debut somewhat close to the over/under $60 million gross to which it was tracking before its March 20, 2020 release was canceled. Maybe F9 will flirt with being the first $100 million-plus launch since The Rise of Skywalker in December 2019. Or possibly F9 will be a “success” by earning the same $97 million in total as Fate of the Furious made in its opening weekend.

The “still promising but not superlative” scenario would be for these films, all working with compromised theatrical windows, to play like Tom & Jerry or Mortal Kombat. That might be considered a success for merely earning what they might have had they “disappointed” in conventional times. Just as Mortal Kombat and Godzilla Vs. Kong pulled differing commercial results; not every summer release will perform as expected in traditional times. Reviews will matter. The “got to see this in theaters” factor will matter. Outside circumstances related to a global pandemic will matter. Summer 2021 will, for different reasons obviously, have as much of an asterisk next to it as summer 2020. It’s going to be… interesting.