Mare of Easttown Theories: Who Killed Erin McMenamin?

I stand by my opinion that there are too many detective dramas. There are far too many more detective dramas dealing specifically with the gruesome deaths of young women. And yes, the new, Kate Winslet-led drama on HBO Max, Mare of Easttown, is one of these dramas. And yet, unlike so many other tired tales of borderline alcoholic cops and brutalized teenagers, it harnesses the stereotype to tell a bolder, smarter story, rather than regurgitating the same police propaganda we’ve had forced down our throats for decades.

To be clear, the audience is supposed to believe that, yes, deep down, Mare is a good cop. We just can’t be positive she’s a good person.

In Easttown, Pa., Mare (Winslet) is a bone-tired detective who believes herself to be an excellent cop. So the fact that she has yet to find a missing young woman named Katie Bailey (Caitlin Houlahan) galls her, especially when you consider that Katie is the daughter of Dawn, Mare’s former friend and high school basketball teammate. As Mare circles around a whole lot of nothing, she continues to spiral from the sudden loss of her son, Kevin (Cody Kostro); the creeping rot of poverty and the opioid epidemic inside her own community; and the impending nuptials of her ex-husband Frank (David Denman). She’s also living in the same house as her mother (Jean Smart) while raising a high school-aged daughter, Siobhan (Angourie Rice), and her late son’s own young son.

Meanwhile, teenager Erin McMenamin (Cailee Spaeny) is doing everything in her power to keep hope alive while raising her infant son. She lives with her verbally abusive father, Kenny (Patrick Murney), and attempts to co-parent with her ex-boyfriend, Dylan (Jack Mulhern), who is openly dismissive and cruel. Yet Erin, in all her exhaustion, remains optimistic, prepping for a date night at a party near the woods. But when she arrives, she realizes she’s been catfished by Dylan’s new girlfriend, Brianna (Mackenzie Lansing), who ferociously attacks Erin out of jealousy and spite. Despite Siobhan’s protests, an injured Erin ventures alone into the forest, where she is discovered dead the next morning.

Mare of Easttown is about who killed Erin MeMenamin. It is also about why that matters, and why our perceptions of who is evil are often so fundamentally flawed. It’s a fantastic show, but to glean the true meaning from it, we have to start with Erin—and what exactly happened that night in the woods.

Spoilers below.

Who killed Erin McMenamin?

By the end of episode 6, which aired Sunday, May 24, we think we’ve found our killer. And yet this suspect list remains, in part because we can’t be sure if our supposed killer is telling the truth. Let’s break down everything we know, suspect by suspect, shall we?

Kenny McMenamin

First, there’s Kenny, Erin’s dad. His track record isn’t exactly glowing when it comes to Father of the Year nominations, it’s true. He hollers at his daughter, makes her clean up after him, and refuses to pay for his grandson’s ear surgery. But fumbling fatherhood isn’t an indictment for murder, especially of your own kin. The chance that Kenny himself ventured into the woods, stripped his daughter of her clothes, and killed her with a blunt object seems too abhorrent to consider. But Mare of Easttown does a good job of giving you solid reasons to suspect anyone and everyone, without using the trope as a crutch. Kenny very well could be involved, even if indirectly. We know he was abusive toward his daughter, and it was an open secret in his family. He could be capable of anything.

In episode 2, we watch Mare drive up to Kenny’s place and deliver the news of Erin’s death. At this point, my suspicions of Kenny’s involvement all but dissolved—his pain is so visceral it seems to reach through the screen and choke you. In the wake of his grief, he jabs a figurative finger at Dylan, claiming the teenager “hated” Erin for giving birth to DJ.

Of course, Kenny has to complicate things further by tracking Dylan down and shooting him. Dylan survives, as we see in episode 3, but Kenny’s rage gives us reason to believe he’s lacking in the mental stability department. And yet. By the end of episode 5, Kenny has all but stepped out of the picture, which could either be an effective method for derailing our attention or a subtle cue that he’s not the perp we’re looking for.

Dylan Hinchey

At the top of Mare’s “they’re up to something” list is Dylan, Erin’s ex-boyfriend and an all-around just terrible person. He stood and watched his new girlfriend beat up his ex and didn’t do a thing to stop it. He resented Erin for keeping their baby and expecting him to help pay for the baby’s necessities. Who knows, maybe he figured his waning teenage years would be better off without a responsible mother for his sick child? But, if that were the case, why draw attention to himself with Erin’s (very public) beating? It was on camera! If he really wanted a quick and quiet murder, it makes no sense to create a crime scene right beforehand.

In episode 2, he’s taken in for questioning, and Mare grills him, chipping away in pursuit of a confession. “If you’re lying to me, it’s going to be very bad for you,” she threatens (convincingly, I might add). And yet he does lie. He lies about watching Erin walk into the woods, and he lies about his relationship status with Brianna. He’s very cavalier about the whole thing, and yet he doesn’t stink of guilt, either. More than anything, he reeks of exasperation. That doesn’t clear his name, but it does make the case less straightforward than Mare would prefer.

Later, we learn he is not, in fact, DJ’s father—a complicating factor that could either lend him innocence or guilt, depending on how we’re reading the situation. In episode 4, we watch Dylan recover in the hospital, DJ wailing in the crib by his bed. The audience already knows Dylan sucks, but our aversion turns to horror as we witness him, exhausted and furious, climb out of his cot and stalk toward the toddler, pillow clutched in his fist. Intuitively, we know what’s going to happen: This evil kid who killed Erin McMenamin is going to suffocate her child.

But then he stops. He puts aside the pillow, then cradles the crying baby. In the audience’s collective exhale, we allow him off the hook once again. Maybe, just maybe, we’ve been barking up the wrong tree.

Except Dylan isn’t very good at brushing off our suspicions. In episode 5, he buries himself deep again as we watch him; Erin’s best friend, Jess; and Sean (Sadat Waddy) get up to something extraordinarily sketchy. Apparently, Dylan’s been coaching Jess through her conversations with Mare, pulling the strings of any hints she lets drop into the detective’s lap.

“So what’d you say to that detective?” Dylan asks Jess as she climbs into the backseat of Sean’s car.

“I told her the journals were in [Erin’s] old hiding place,” Jess says. “She called yesterday asking about a necklace.”

“And what’d you tell her?”

“Nothing, just like you said.”

The necklace in question is one Mare discovered in Erin’s bedroom. It’s engraved with a date that, to the audience, bears no special meaning—at least not yet. Still, it must be important somehow, because Dylan seems anxious as he, Jess, and Sean rummage through Erin’s things in the dark of night, gathering her journals so they can burn them in the fireplace. Before Dylan can burn the last one, Jess slips one of the pages into her coat pocket. In episode 6, this is the photo she reveals to the police chief. The audience, infuriatingly, isn’t privy to the image, but it’s enough to shock the chief, who immediately demands Mare be contacted.

There’s no question that Dylan was involved, somehow, in Erin’s murder. Hell, he puts a gun to Jess’s head when she shows signs of disobeying his commands, and we learn in episode 6 he wasn’t in Brianna’s bed the night of the murder. He did something. We just don’t know what it was yet.

Frank Sheehan

In the final seconds of episode 2, Jess confesses something that, perhaps, Dylan led her to reveal: Erin had a relationship with one Frank Sheehan, Mare’s ex-husband. And Jess seems to think he’s DJ’s father. (Jerry Springer, are you listening?)

If that were actually the case, then Mare might be cuffing the man she once married by the time the credits roll. But we learn in episode 4 that neither Frank nor Dylan are DJ’s father, which wipes Frank’s slate clean while giving Dylan yet another motive for the murder.

Still, I hesitate to take Frank off this list entirely. After all, he chose to lie to Mare about how well he knew Erin, even if their relationship was an innocent, platonic one built on genuine concern for her well-being. And in episode 6, we learn his fiancee, Faye, is unhappy with him; she’s not staying at the house with him anymore, as things have been “rocky” since Mare asked him to take a paternity test.

It’s true, Mare’s ex could be the innocent, gentle giant he seems to be. But remember, Frank was with Billy and John Ross the night Erin died. That’s automatically a reason to hold his actions closer to the light. Why, exactly? We’ll get to that.

Deacon Mark Burton

I almost feel comfortable taking Deacon Mark off of this list. Almost.

So, we learn in episode 3 that the last person Erin called the night she died was Deacon Mark (James McArdle), a quiet, austere spiritual mentor who practically seeps I’m Guilty vibes. To make things even more obvious, he’s got a mark on his record—Detective Colin Zabel (Evan Peters) gets a tip that the holy man might not be so holy after all, though the particulars of his prior behavior are still a bit murky. Then, Mare of Easttown packages up our neat little suspicion sandwich with a dollop of condemning evidence: In episode 3, we watch Deacon Mark retrieve Erin’s bike from the back seat of his car and toss it into the river. There goes the smoking gun!

Turns out, the man was transferred to Easttown after he was accused of sexual misconduct by the parents of a 14-year-old girl at his last parish. Of course. It’s a classic story of sin: The religious leader caught in the act with an innocent child and his desperate attempt to cover it up through extortion or bribery or worse.

We’ve all been given more than enough reason not to trust men in holy uniform. But making Deacon Mark the murderer—and giving us this much evidence so quickly—would mean Mare of Easttown isn’t as smart as I believe it to be. Remember, this show wants us to second-guess our assessments of good and evil. Like Mare, we’re supposed to wonder who really deserves saving (including ourselves), and whether “deserving” even matters in the first place. Making Deacon Mark into a pedophile with as much subtlety as a flashing neon sign doesn’t add up.

So it’s important to pay attention when, in episode 5, the deacon finally shares his full story with Father Dan Hastings (Neal Huff). The night of Erin’s murder, she called him, it’s true. And he did go pick her up from the party in the woods. But while driving her home, she apparently received a text from someone “asking her to go to Brandywine Park,” which made her “hysterical, just hysterical.” She asked to be let off at the park and then “stormed off” before he could stop her. Of course, she left her bike in his trunk, a condemning bit of evidence for a holy leader once accused of sexual misconduct. Terrified of the allegations that would be hurled his way should anyone find out about the bike, he tossed it into the river, praying that’d be enough to clear his name. But he promises Father Dan he didn’t kill the girl.

Father Dan is somewhat skeptical, and so are we. He runs straight for the police to unload Deacon Mark’s woeful tale, and they’re doubly skeptical—they don’t believe “a word that comes out of [Mark’s] mouth.” But I’ll be deeply disappointed if Mare of Easttown pulls a The Undoing and delivers Deacon Mark as the murderer, wrapped in a bright red bow. This show can be smarter. It should be smarter.

Father Dan Hastings

Lest we forget, there’s another man in holy uniform in Mare of Easttown—and he’s much closer to Mare than Deacon Mark. Father Dan Hastings is Mare’s cousin, and he seems much more relaxed (and therefore innocent) than his partner at the parish. (He loves Manhattans, after all.) But several fans on Reddit have pointed out that he could be hanging around Mare and her family to stay ahead of her investigation, if he is indeed involved in the murder or the trafficking ring.

He also is quick to inform the police of Deacon Mark’s deeds as soon as the deacon unveils his story. It’s possible Father Dan just felt it was the right thing to do. But it could also be a way for him to shift any evidence away from himself and place the spotlight on his parish partner.

Siobhan Sheehan

There’s at least some reason to suspect Siobhan’s involvement in Erin’s murder. She is, after all, the last person we see with Erin on the night she dies. Mare’s sweet, well-adjusted daughter rescues Erin from Dylan and Brianna’s pile-on, only pausing after Erin shrugs her off and shuffles into the woods. The next day, Siobhan doesn’t bother to tell her mother about seeing Erin on the night she died—at least, not until Mare tracks her down and drags the information out of her. It’s all a wee bit odd.

“The reason I’m sus on Siobhan is that we have no idea where she was after, [she] didn’t pick up her phone all day, and all her buddies came forward while she was mia,” wrote one Reddit user. That’s hardly enough for an arrest warrant, but wouldn’t it be fascinating to see Mare’s golden child pegged for this crime, even if she didn’t do it?

The Peeping Tom

In the very first episode, we watch Mare drag herself out to bed to answer a call from Betty Carroll, who believes she’s caught a peeping tom (if only her husband would set up the security cameras). After Mare draws an illustration of the perp from Betty’s description—“he looked like a ferret”—the show all but drops any mention of this criminal.

Don’t let that fool you. He’s bound to turn up eventually, and I’d be willing to bet it’s as a puzzle piece in Erin’s murder case.

Richard Ryan

Ah yes, everyone’s favorite National Book Award-winning author, Richard Ryan. Admittedly, I will always see Guy Pearce as a villain, and not only because his turn as Aldrich Killian in Iron Man 3 is agonizingly seared into my brain. He just plays the charming con artist role so well, it’s hard to see him as anything but.

There’s definitely something going on with this dude that goes beyond suffering through writer’s block, hitting up women at book parties, and sleeping with depressed detectives. So far, there’s no real reason why Richard appears in this show—other than as Mare’s romantic interest, and I’m not convinced she’s that interested in him. So what is his role? What is his purpose? This is the guy who starred in Memento. True, Pearce only entered the Mare-iverse because the original actor set to star as Richard, Ben Miles, exited due to scheduling conflicts. And yet—you don’t cast the guy who starred in Memento unless you’ve got something solid planned for him, right? Even if he wasn’t your first choice?

Still, I doubt any of the above makes Richard the murderer. He’s supposedly an outsider in Easttown, and the idea of the Mare writers pegging this crime on an outsider seems ill-conceived, given the show is about small-town suspicions and the inability to ever really know your neighbors. But could Richard have been involved in the crime, or even in the trafficking ring at Bennie’s Tavern, the one that ends episode 5 with Mare traumatized and Zabel dead? Absolutely. Maybe he knows something about Katie Bailey’s disappearance, and his canoodling with Mare is a means to an end. Or he could just be a sweet guy who doles out hoagie gift baskets. Truth be told, I prefer the latter.

John and/or Billy Ross

And now we arrive at Suspect Nos. 1 and 2. For weeks, fans have been on to the Ross boys, friends of Frank Sheehan and family of Lori Ross, Mare’s best friend. The two of them were painting the town with Frank the night of Erin’s murder, and they drove Frank home around 2 a.m., which means they were out and about (and under the influence) during the time Erin was wandering beyond the woods. And when they break the news of Erin’s death to Kenny, there’s something noticeably off about their behavior. Their movements are erratic and uncomfortable, making them appear guilty—particularly Billy, who remains enough of a sidelined character in the first few episodes that he’s easy to discount.

But then we reach the events of episode 5. In a conversation between Billy, Mare, John and Lori, we learn Erin lived with Billy for “at least a couple months” following her mother’s death, when Kenny was deep into alcoholism. When Lori reveals this pertinent little tidbit, Billy’s face practically drains of color, and his speech becomes stunted. “I really don’t remember; it was a long time ago,” he says, before standing up and telling everyone, welp, gots to get going! Ever the detective, Mare notices that doesn’t track—the man just went into the kitchen and cracked open a fresh Rolling Rock. Who does that, when they’re moments away from leaving? You don’t waste a Rolling Rock in Easttown. That’s Rule No. 1.

Later, we learn John is cheating on Lori, and that he’s been begging his son, Ryan, not to tell. He moves out of the house once Ryan can’t keep the truth to himself anymore, and though John seems genuinely repentant, we all know how that goes.

These little puzzle pieces alone were enough to move Billy and John up the suspect list last week—and then the revelations of episode 6 hit. In “Sore Must Be the Storm,” we’re suddenly loaded with evidence that the Ross brothers are the architects of Erin’s death. Pat Ross, their father, admits he saw Billy return home the night of her murder covered in blood. In the past few weeks, he’s grown increasingly gray-faced and unwell, diving deeper into the bottle. Then, by the end of the episode, Billy has actually admitted to killing Erin; in fact, he plans to confess to the police that very afternoon. And yet. There is so much more to unpack here. Because it’s true, Billy might be the killer. But I doubt the genesis of Erin’s demise began with Billy.

Here’s why: Toward the beginning of “Sore Must Be the Storm,” we watch a stumbling, agitated Billy tell his older brother, “Nothing’s the matter with me. You made a mess of your life because you couldn’t keep your dick in your fucking pants. Now you clean it up.” He could be referring to John’s infidelity with Sandra, the woman his son caught him with. Or this could be something different entirely. Maybe even…Erin?

Think of it like this: After Billy’s confession, John told Lori that Billy was the murderer. He asked his wife, from whom he’s separated, not to reveal this secret, in order to “protect” their family—just peak presumptuous male material here. He admits Erin and Billy’s encounter was an incestuous “relationship” and hints Billy could be DJ’s father. Lori, after what appears to be some painful reflection, slowly unrolls these details for Mare, who jumps in her car and guns it so she can intercept Billy as he and John head for one last fishing trip. Yet watch the resentful, borderline hateful way Billy stares at John as they coast down the road. He has a reason to despise his older brother. What else could it be, other than that he’s taking the fall for his own brother’s wrongdoings?

It’s possible, maybe even likely, that Billy did kill Erin. And it’s equally possible that he’s not DJ’s father. John could be DJ’s father, and John could have been the one in the incestuous relationship with Erin, the one who “couldn’t keep his dick in his pants.” And in his desperation to keep that fact a secret, he could have used Billy to “dispose” of the evidence. It’s vile, but it certainly make a lot of sense, doesn’t it?

We still can’t be positive Billy was the murderer, especially after Jess reveals that photo to the police chief. What does it depict? Who does it depict? And will it finally answer our questions—about Billy and John, about Dylan and Jess, and about Mare herself?

Watch Mare of Easttown on HBO Max