This was larger than anyone expected, as industry predictions called for a 0.1% decrease. However, it does follow the announcement of a larger-than-expected decrease in inflation, with December’s numbers bringing the year-over-year number down to 6.5%.
This consensus can be seen in a swift downward trajectory of the yield on the 10-year Treasury. While yields have been up and down in the time in between, as a whole, investor sentiment appears to believe that inflation is heading in the right direction, so yields are also headed down. While decreased yields on the 10-year Treasury are an indicator that inflation is down, they’re also a cause for concern in today’s environment because yields on the three-month Treasury are higher, sitting at 4.72% as of January 20, 2023.
The Fed notes that its research has proven these correlations aren’t necessarily accurate. We knew short-term borrowing would get more expensive when rates started rising, and the Fed has always been aware that a recession would be a potential consequence of their actions.The 10-year yield affects mortgage rates
Alternately, we could topple into an official recession. There are no crystal balls here, but there are reasons to be hopeful amidst all the anxiety.Inflation is finally headed down, but it still has a long way to go before it’s at the Fed’s target of 2%. Since it appears to be on its way out, the 10-year Treasury yield is also headed in the same direction.
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