Using season average metrics is a flawed method of assessing football performance

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Season averages have their place in football analysis, but it's time to acknowledge the statistical variance that affects them

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Gary O’Neil summarised it perfectly on Monday Night Football. “A big key to me is being adaptable and flexible,” said Wolves’ head coach. “I’d love to go to Manchester City and press. I’d love to have 70 per cent of the ball, but is that going to happen and are we going to win the game? Probably not.

As a consequence, Arsenal’s touches in advanced areas on Saka’s flank were unusually low compared with their season-wide average (blue shade). Here, averaging this across the season would provide a blurry view of Arsenal’s approach, but tease out the story game by game and the picture — quite literally — looks a little clearer. Zooming out to look at the whole league, we can run the numbers to calculate the distribution of each side’s in-possession touch locations per game.

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