High inflation worries monetary policymakers at the Bank of England, too. At their next meeting, on February 3rd, they will probably raise interest rates from 0.25% to 0.5%. And they too are concerned by public opinion. All central bankers care about the public’s confidence in their ability to control inflation. If that is lost, policymakers fear that expectations of price rises will become self-fulfilling. Workers expecting higher inflation may demand higher pay to compensate.
Another place to look for brewing problems is in wage trends. Average pay excluding bonuses grew by 3.8% in the three months to November 2021, in part because of tight awards in 2020. After rising from around 3% to 19% between 2019 and 2020, cash freezes as a share of pay awards fell over 2021, according to Income Data Research, a data firm.
The most direct evidence of planned price increases comes from companies themselves. Faced with higher costs of raw materials, rising energy prices and bigger pay bills , companies surveyed in December outlined plans to raise their prices by 5% in 2022, more than the 4% increase they reported in 2021. Ms Mann said that “it should be a concern that the costs from 2021 are becoming reflected in price expectations for 2022”.
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