Trump isn't just about to lose the election. He's about to lose five or six elections for the Republicans to come
New polls suggest Trump himself is destroying Trumpism, and the rest of the party is making the same mistakes Democrats once made when they buried themselves for 36 years
As The Donald himself likes to boast, hardly anyone has ever done anything like that before.Download the new Independent Premium appSharing the full story, not just the headlinesDownload nowThe past week’s polls have been brutal, for the president and his party, as coalitions emerge in response to Trumpism that could last a generation. Republicans are increasingly likely to lose the Senate this fall, just like they lost the House of Representatives to Democrats in 2018, as Trump marks their brand as one for people who are old, busybodyish, and, worst of all, disconnected from reality.
Specifically, the 11-point lead Quinnipiac University’s poll found for presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, and the 8-pointer in Fox News’ poll, show the GOP looking more than ever like an all-in bet on the past, conceding the future to Democrats whether they deserve it or not.
Internal numbers in Quinnipiac’s poll explain why Trump’s party is in both short-term and long-term trouble.Trump’s down 11 despite a 24-point lead with white voters who lack college degrees, about 40 percent of the electorate. With everyone else, then, he’s getting whipped by far more.
Both variables are moving, inexorably, in ways that doom Trumpism. The percentage of women with college degrees has doubled, to 36 percent, since Bill Clinton’s election in 1992 and nearly tripled since the last big GOP presidential wave in 1980, according to Statista. And the 67 percent white electorate was 76 percent as recently as 2000, says the Pew Charitable Trust.
So, Trumpism is betting everything on a base shrinking in both of its most relevant dimensions.Fox’s poll isn’t much different. It shows Trump up 26 points (58-32) among white men without degrees, and down 21 (56-35) among white women with them. And he’s getting demolished, 67-21, among nonwhites.
That could be fixed in four years — normally — but the GOP has been lashing itself to Trumpian surrealism, even before the president raised disdain for economic reason and scientific fact to the performance art required to make treating Covid-19 with hydroxychloroquine or Lysol a partisan litmus test.
Think about educated people you know. How many think wearing masks is a masculinity test? Think gay people shouldn’t free to work without discrimination, or to get married, GOP-base mainstays before Trump? That government should restrict birth control? That immigrants all go on welfare and ravage cities? That neo-Nazis include very fine people, and barging into Michigan’s legislature brandishing AR-15s because you can’t get a haircut is normal? Some, but not enough to win elections. Attitudes on all these issues vary by education level and occupation — the more educated and white-collar, the more voters favor Democratic answers.
In other words, the culture war’s over and Republicans lost, even though many are very fine people.Anti-Trump Republican group launches ad against Mitch McConnellThese patterns are showing up in Senate races. Arizona, getting more Latinx and suburban, has GOP incumbent Martha McSally down 13 points in a survey by a local pollster. Colorado’s GOP incumbent Cory Gardner’s losing by as much as 18.
Of a sudden, the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority could — theoretically — lose 10 members. Maine, Colorado, Arizona and North Carolina are acknowledged problems. But Georgia (which has two seats open this year because Sen. Johnny Isakson resigned for health reasons), Iowa, and Montana are newer problems, and the GOP has a uniquely weak likely nominee in Kansas. If Trump stirs a wave of repudiation, even Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, Texas’ John Cornyn or South Carolina’s Lindsey Graham could get wet.
The 2022 Senate map is worse for Republicans. Iowa’s Chuck Grassley will be 89, Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey wants to run for governor, and North Carolina’s Richard Burr must explain stock trades possibly based on inside information about coronavirus. Democrats need to defend just 12 seats, all in blue strongholds.
The worst part for the GOP is that old white guys — those of whom Trump said, “I love the poorly educated” — still dominate the party. The path to GOP primary victory in 2022 runs through distaste for social norms (like abortion choice and multiculturalism) 40 to 50 years deep in mainstream culture, plus reality denialism. That’s why the GOP is likely to produce more Senate nominees — and a presidential nominee for 2024 — who struggle in November.
Despite Trump’s claims that everything he does is unique, we’ve seen this before. The best example (better even than Herbert Hoover) is 1896, when Democrats nominated William Jennings Bryan to fight for the interests of farmers in a nation turned urban and industrial.
Bryan got buried, and buried every Democratic nominee but one for 36 years, because he was as out of step with America’s turn-of-the-century transformation as Trump is now.The way the Democrats really killed themselves was nominating Bryan again — in 1900 and 1908 — to make sure no one forgot they were out of touch.
Like Democrats then, Republicans are falling over themselves to be the Trumpiest now, building paper trails to sink Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and for United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley whenever they run for president.And President Mike Pence? Oh, mother!Read more: The Independent »
The world will not be destroyed by those who do evil, but by those who watch & do nothing. This won’t age well 😂😂😂 At last, some GOOD news🤣. Hey, you're not trying to distract from cumgate are you😉 Yeah they all said that in 2016, how did that turn out? Get rid of this nasty parasite. He will destroy America and is a threat to World Peace.
HA HA HA HA As we vote him in a second term and take back the house... yea we heard all this BS last election.. and they tried every illegal means to stop him and STILL couldnt pull it off HA HA HA HA HA TRAERA A TODOS LOS SOLDADOS DE AFGANISTAN...TRUMP YA GANO.... TRUMP.... YA GANOOOO!!!! Trump is going to win.
Don’t be so stupid, he will walk the election. Scorched earth. Hopefully we figure out what to do to reunite this fucking train wreck country Trump has created all by himself. POTUS Great news WaronRacism now Please b true I so desperately want to c America return to life on Earth We cant allow this man or his party to get away with the damage they have done all over the world not just America
You’re joking. No one should vote Republican ever again after they’ve destroyed our government, our economy, and our world. Actually. You really think Trump is going to lose the election? Seriously doubt that. Hopefully the republicans loose every seat for their choice of power and money over the constitution Too many corrupt politicians who favor money over justice Christians my ***
Yes, just like they predicted last time. If Biden doesn't drop out due to his clear mental decline, then Trump wins. hallelujah If you have ever seen the average American, youll know that he hasn't lost anything yet. Media talking about 'certain' things that haven't happened yet is half the reason we're in this mess 😂 Please don't jinx it.
Good news finally I wish that were true. The Democrats look pretty incompetent too. Plus young people only bitch they don’t vote. Wishful thinking is nice. Reality is stronger. We can only hope Fingers crossed On the contrary,he will go on to win because he is investigating petty ones before the major sins,so what happened to social media companies was very important, because they will wage a harsh war on him in the coming months.Trump succeeded in winning the elections before started
If only he could get a powerful light up inside him or inject disinfectant into his snake-eye. He isn’t - if we have learned one thing about the US electorate - it is more interested in white supremacy and gun ownership than pretty much anything else - Trump will win another term SO? ⚠️ Get the facts about biased journalism.
And that smile off his face Has Twitter fact_checked you? Donald_Trump said zero probability of No fraud vote and TwitterFactCheck and you're saying 5 times loss for republican to come. It's alike to me. Jack show me what you got. Liars..... ETTD (Everything Trump Touches Dies) An opinion based on nothing. ObamaGate Trump2020 WalkAwayFromDemocrats
This way of thinking reminds me of a journalist doing a great party too early on Election Day, from Hilary’s Headquarters. 🤞 Trump is the most ridiculous thing in politics since Michael Fabricant's hair. Look I think Trump is a loon and absolutely a danger to everyone, however the Democrats have offered up Biden an easily discredited, stale, wooden opposition and just like the Uk with Corbyn he will be destroyed ..... Trump will coast to a second term
His supporters would back him if he burned their houses down with their families inside. (No need to fact check - I am not suggesting he actually would). Course they will...sucking up and creeping to that sleazy weasel for the past 4 years! Scumballs, the lot of them... BIG STORY !!! 🇺🇸 That is what you said 4 hours before the final tallies of 2016 election .. this social media will watch you and your fake news in the future
Here’s the deal.... I want him to lose the elections for future narcissistic corrupt assholes who have tunnel vision. I miss YangGang so forward thinking! HOW CAN TRUMP LOOSE TO A OLD MAN WHO THINKS HE IS JOE BIDEN AND GOING TO BEAT JOE BIDEN? Don't jinx it Hell, he better. you are wrong. The arrogance displayed by the left/liberal media that cost Democrats last election is 5 times worse than it was 4 years ago. TRump is going to win for the same reason.
I hope so. He's a madman, literally. Fingers crossed 🤞🏻 What about our current govt? So how come he has double digit (43%) approval? GOP is gone for a generation. Hope the sycophants think his one term (and he’s lucky to have got to the end) presidency was worth it! TrumpIsAnIdiot TrumpVirus He’ll win, majority of Americans are uneducated racist European-Americans and Trump is their hero.
Bullsh*t opinion Fake news! Not with Biden, no. Think he’ll lose, but just, then refuse to leave claiming electoral fraud How's Trump polling in the marginal states, the one's that will decide the election? What Republican party? Haha how many more times are you going to be Wrong in an Epic fashion for you to realise you know nothing about the people or how we think. Trump 2020 is coming.
We'll look back fondly on the golden age of President Trump when President Zuckerberg wins his third term. haha...This is the sort of S..t he spoke out about today and signed an executive order. The usual spin Fact checkers go for it lol TRUMP 2020 !!!! C L O W N 🤡 That’s what everyone said in 2016... Keep dreaming! Trump2020
He'll probably lose the election but not so sure about the rest. I'm sure the honeymoon period for the Democrats won't last too long. It is hard to believe the worlds respect for the USA has fallen so low under this Presidency. He is the undead vampire that keeps coming back from the dead. use garlic at least
I wish I could believe this. Dream on losers. Saved for November. Just wait until the debates start, JoeBiden will likely shit himself, literally 🤢 bet you said the same thing after bush you probably said the same thing after bush Will come back for your follow up opinion after he secures a 2nd term against a mentally feeble DNC shill.
As much as I don't want him to win, let's just wait and see as allegedly he wouldn't win last time so never underestimate ignorant America. Haha sure thing. Loooooooool I bet my whole life that not only he will win the election but also he clean the house and allot of dems will go to jail wishful thinking, I'm afraid...
We can only hope! Have you actually seen who he’s running against? Seriously not even the average American is that stupid Opinion: The media whores are snorting strong stuff From your lips Pity is the Americans don’t have the memory span of more than six months to Vere! Didn't you say that last time? This wont age well.
Tenner says that’s horseshit Dude you're the President, president act like one. Stop tweeting, manage the country. 👏👏👏👏👏 What a drama has he created in USA and around the world. Millions of cases, pressure on Iran which proved way too strong, Hong kong stripped off its autonomy by China, drama with NK accounting to nothing.
In my opinion wrong you are. Want to bet? 🤞 This is liberal fantasy porn :( Oh I hope so, if this is considered defendable by the GOP. There is a new grand party.
Trump asks reporter to take mask off then mocks him when he refuses toPresident alleges veteran reporter Jeff Mason merely wanted to be 'politically correct' And the daily embarrassment continues The world is laughing at the US. It is actualy good they voted fo him. We can easily see what US really is.
Donald Trump: President accuses Twitter of 'stifling free speech' for flagging his 2020 election tweetsThe president said the social media platform is interfering with the 2020 presidential election by placing a warning on his tweet. If it's not leftard mentality it gets censored. No, just stifling a fool
Biden calls Trump 'absolute fool' to mock others for wearing a mask'Presidents are supposed to lead, not engage in folly and be falsely masculine' He just doesnt wanna look more ugly thats why he doesnt wanna wear one
Hong Kong crisis: Trump warns China he will take action as protests loomUS president ‘displeased’ with efforts by Beijing to impose national security laws, as Chinese president says military must prepare for confrontations realDonaldTrump Every free-world government need to help on this one. Bullshite..............short but true Commie just want money
Twitter tags Trump post with fact-checking warningThis is the first time the social media giant has said President Trump's tweet could be misleading. Guess the bullshit has finally reached saturation point and even Twitter has had enough 👍 Ban him jack
Trump press secretary defends president pushing 'Morning Joe' murder conspiracy theory with no evidenceIntroducing no evidence to support the claim, White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany on Tuesday defended Donald Trump for repeatedly pushing a conspiracy theory that Joe Scarborough murdered a FAKE NEWS. PATHETIC NEWS. What a time to be alive. Good grief what have we become? 😳 She's just as bad as her boss