In 1st year of pandemic, COVID vaccines saved 20M lives

Study: Global impact of the first year of COVID-19 vaccination: a mathematical modelling study. Image Credit: Foxeel / Shutterstock

About the study In the present mathematical modeling-based study, the authors estimated the global impact of COVID-19 vaccination up to December 8, 2021. They fitted severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission models to reported deaths and excess mortality as a substitute for COVID-19 deaths during the early pandemic.

By fitting the model directly to mortality, the researchers indirectly captured the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the COVID-19 pandemic. They derived vaccination rates for first and second doses in each country from the Our World in Data database and the WHO dashboard. The researchers did not adjust the Rt trends for NPIs, and the emergence of variants had vaccines not become available. However, they characterized the relationship between the infection fatality ratio and the assumed degree of immune evasion of the Delta variant.

Based on excess mortality estimates, they observed that vaccinations halved the potential global death toll and averted around 19.8 million deaths in a year. The latter represents the true extent of the first year of the pandemic, showing a global reduction of 63% in total deaths due to vaccination.

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