What is the R number, and why is it so important?
The number at the heart of the decision whether to lift lockdown.
The reproduction number is not fixed. Instead, it changes as our behaviour changes, or as immunity develops.Mathematical modellers at Imperial College London are attempting to track how the number has changed as isolation, social distancing and the full lockdown were introduced.
Before any measures came in, the number was well above one and the conditions were ripe for a large outbreak. Successive restrictions brought it down, but it was not until full lockdown that it was driven below one.The R value in the UKhas crept uprecently and is now thought to be between 0.7 and 1.0.
Counter-intuitively, this increase is probably due to the success in slowing the virus in society as a whole. As cases collapse in the community, the R value is largely reflecting what is happening in care homes.Does R vary across the UK?The R number has come down across every part of the UK since the start of the epidemic.
But multiple research groups,, show it has come down the most in London. It is proving far more stubborn in the north-east of England.Those figures are more optimistic than other groups' calculations.puts the number for London at 0.6, and the south-west at 0.9.
It also showed the R-values were 0.8 in Wales, and 1 in both Scotland and Northern Ireland.So how does this inform lifting lockdown?As any country thinks about how to lift lockdown, the aim will be to keep the reproduction number below one.Dr Adam Kucharski, of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the BBC:"It's a big challenge making sure you're not loosening too much and increasing transmission."
However it has taken a monumental effort, one that has caused damage to people's lives, to get the number from three to 0.7."It doesn't give you a lot of room to play with [to keep the number below one]", Dr Kucharski added.Which measures could be lifted?
Unfortunately, there is no confirmation of how much each intervention affects the virus's spread, although there are estimates."Opening schools versus workplaces versus other gatherings - understanding how much they increase the reproduction number, is going to be the challenge," said Dr Kucharski.
which model are you basing this on then, one made in 1972? Terrorist media lying to the public again, PS taken a look at how many ppl have cxd their tv licences this week? I know of least 25 and thats just ppl at work ! My “R” number refers to the number of glasses of red wine I have a week. It’s gone up a bit since lockdown due to COVIDー19 😬
Well it's not important and you damn well know it lmao 😂 🤣 🤣 🤣 It is so important as it helps to control the masses I know the B number is off the charts Media Bullshit The R number should have been a mathematical formula incorporating recent and current infections and including data such as Hospital admissions. Instead it is a model which takes a super computer 56 hours to process. It’s drivel
From FatEmperor , if Nobel prize winners are saying lockdown effectively added nothing why is this not on main stream media?! R? R is not a number. R is a letter. Like, ABCDEFG...R..? ? The fuck? Now explain how they get the R0 number, how do they know for example it’s 0.7 or 0.5 & when it moves up or down. Is it from the testing, ummmm, no as they don’t test sufficient numbers. Is it from the social distancing monitoring, say the app, ummmm no, it’s not working.
Subliminal messaging Stay at home Stay at home Stay at home Ask this fuckwit Something that will be forgotten about and never mentioned again, if it’s too high for the government to be able to do what they want. To set up the joke that our government doesn’t know its Rs from its elbow? until it goes up and may scupper govt plans. Then it seems R isn’t one number but has “different measures”.
It's only important StayAtHomeSaveLives when it suits the government's agenda unfortunately StayAlert Also important is the F number. The number of Fear spreading and not diminishing. Potentially far more damaging. Who does naga think she is the bbc answer to piers We the better word should be Chinavirus because it's originated from China, and the World Leadership must place Economic Sanction on Chinese Government for killing these innocent people..what is their offense and why the Global Death Sentence from China😠
Pre-flight blood tests, contactless check-in and germ-detecting ultraviolet lights: This is what your post-lockdown holiday will look likeExperts predict the travel industry could shrink by at least 50% as a direct result of Coronavirus 😬
Significant numbers of government’s coronavirus home tests never usedTesting tsar can only confirm half have been sent back to labs On top of double counting tests. How can this data be trusted? That's because they are all in Hancock's garage classed as a Test, or even 2 depending what figure he needs to fiddle. Who should step down first ... Priti Patel , Boris Johnson , Matt Hancock or more !? Additionally you can add your thoughts in comments 👍 Vote☑️Add☑️RT☑️ .
UK coronavirus R number stays the same for two weeks in a rowReproductive rate reported as 0.7 to 1, based on findings two to three weeks agoCoronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverage That was enough for the science 2 weeks ago to keep Scotland at home. When applied to England all it means is for Jacob_Rees_Mogg to shout at all schools to get the **** back 600 deaths per day, you mean? That’s great news
Coronavirus: Infection rate unchanged - as 351 more COVID-19 deaths recordedUntil last week, the R number had stayed well below one, which Boris Johnson said it needed to so lockdown could be eased. COVID IS A NATIONAL SCANDAL AND YOU KNOW IT. THE THING IS YOU AND YOUR FAMILY HAVE TO LIVE IN THIS NEW NORMAL.... SPEAK UP FOR THE PEOPLE HELP END LOCKDOWN FOR WE THE PEOPLE DESERVE THE RIGHT TO MAKE OUR OWN CHOICES IN LIFE.STOP THE UNNECESSARY FEAR SPREADING
Coronavirus latest: at a glanceA summary of the biggest developments in the global coronavirus outbreakFollow our latest coronavirus blog for live news and updates The Guardian trusts China 😂 I see your images are already branding COVID-19 a black person’s virus? Yet the whole world knows that it started in China, went to Europe and America. Virtually all news and broadcasting agencies have devised a special interlude or separate column for Covid-19 updates. It seems the pandemic’s socioeconomic impacts have given it irresistible popularity.
Coronavirus hasn’t just infected bodies – it’s infected our consciousness too | Francine ProseRegardless of how safe or healthy we may feel, it takes time and energy trying not to think about how much we have lost The fucking Guardian infects our consciousness Этому можно верить? consciousness goes without saying if you're trying to follow basic instructions ffs. What a shit line. Trash.