Brexit: The PM needs 320 votes from MPs for his deal to pass. Is that likely?

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The prime minister needs 320 votes to pass the new Brexit deal - and initial estimates suggest he is tantalisingly close.

Boris Johnson doesn't have the numbers - yet - to pass his deal in the Commons, but there have been clear signs that some of the resistance is crumbling.The prime minister needs about 320 votes assuming no one abstains, but there are only 287 voting Conservative MPs.

So far, no Brexiteer has declared they are going to vote against it, although there may yet be one or two, so the Tory tally is currently a clean sweep.Nevertheless, how does he close that gap even without the 10 votes from the DUP, who emphatically rejected Mr Johnson's Brexit plan?Whether Mr Johnson wins depends on the backbone of rebels on both sides to defy inducements and threats from their leaderships.

In order to get it through the Commons, the PM needs votes from three groups - 20 former Tory rebels who lost the whip but haven't yet defected, 19 sitting Labour MPs who have previously indicated they might back the right sort of Brexit deal, and a handful of former Labour MPs sitting as independents.

 

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BorisJohnson If he bungs um all 10k each

BorisJohnson No

BorisJohnson No. The Commons is full of back biting weasels. A clear out is over due. Drain the swamp have a general election

BorisJohnson No.

No...labour wouldn’t vote for any deal...next

Not if there are enough intelligent MPs....fingers crossed

No... which surely means a no deal Brexit...

Not bloody...

The DUP are the kingmakers, Boris will have to dig deep to try get their support. Imperative for him.

Think he as more chance of winning the lottery.

Only thing I miss when we leave EU and things settle. I miss the drama. The past few years politics has been more entertaining then the soaps. We need a Yes, Minster revamp.

I doubt it because everyone else just wants to delay it even more even tho there's a deal agreed by the EU.

No NEVER

About as likely as Man United beating Liverpool the following day 😁

Scotland says NO.

No

Will pass by 2....

Doesn't matter because it is now DEAL OR NO DEAL on 31/10 and we will be leaving then. WELLDONEBORIS

Me and the book say no

With a fair wind at his back, his rabbits paw in his pocket, his lucky Y-fronts on and Arlene foster on side ......NO.

it's all in the hands of the labour mps who dislike corbyn and have a leave costituency. all the tories will vote for it including those whose whip has been removed. personally i think it will not go through but...still good for boris

Nope

It's easier to herd cats than get politicians to agree

I don't care

Earlier this year your Beth Rigby told him he wouldn't get the EU to give him a new deal.....and here we are 😏

Short between 5 - 10

If he doesn’t,go for no deal screw the traitors

Was it ever created to pass?

Does it actually matter how the commons vote? The benn act isnt worth the paper its written on as it tries to overrule EU Art50 legislation which has greater authority, why do you think the EU have actively resumed negotiations. Come what may the UK is leaving.

Hope not because I want to stay in the EU ..dont believe the Torys they have been lying since July 1981 and April 1989

Should be this deal or leave no deal balls in remainers court now!

If British MPs vote for this in the Commons, ERG votes it down in the House of Lords. Then NoDealBrexit. Am I wrong in thinking that this is Johnson's strategy? Also Brexit is bullshit. Y'all know it's stupid. I'm Jamaican and can see it's idiocy supreme Reverse it. Move on.

No chance. Majority in Parliament don't want Brexit and are ignoring the referendum result. Deal or no deal will never happen. I wonder how many people will never vote again for anything political

Nope.

I remain doubtful.

The FT think he’s three short. The Independent put it at nine short.

More chance of a white Christmas 🎄

Not likely. But it’ll be interesting to see how Labour can come back from shooting down yet another deal. The damage to them will be immense. Labour MPs must be looking to save their own necks from Jeremy at this point.

nope. 10 short, 5 for certain...

Saw George Galloway on RT ,and he seems to think he'll get the deal,by 40 or 50 Labour MPs abstaining.

But is anyone happy with this deal? leavers don't like and remainer don't like it .. so? At this point is better to put it back to the people .. forcing this, even if 'both sides' don't like, is crazy ..

Yes, Because we are running out of time ...

More chance of winning the lottery 3 weeks on the trot.

Well I hope not There is no way they can study the text properly before Saturday

No, so its clean brexit all the way

Any politician who votes against the brexit deal should be sacked immediately!

It will pass. We will leave on Oct 31st with a deal. Well done Boris 👏🏼 🇬🇧

This is a hard breixt for Great Britain but not norther Ireland. Tariffs will be imposed on GB from 31st Oct. Yellowhammer document comes into effect. Brexit agreement not dealt with that. So bojo gets his hard brexit if labour mps are stupid enough to vote for it. jeremycorbyn

About as likely as him throwing a mattress up a spiral staircase while riding a unicycle.

we the people want it rejected...it's not our brexit,the one we voted for........we want no deal,get us out.

No

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