A Former Supreme Commander of NATO on What Putin's Up to in the Ukraine

over the response to a potential strike; impress his allies, especially President Xi Jinping of China; prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and the E.U., tying them Russia’s sphere of influence; and make the Biden administration appear weak and indecisive in the run-up to the 2021 midterms—especially after the U.S. failed to support former allyFor the U.S., NATO, and the world’s democracies, this is a challenging moment.

A few years later, Putin decided to invade a much-larger neighbor, Ukraine. In that case, he decided to use what has come to be known as “hybrid warfare,” a witches’ brew of non-uniformed soldiers , high end special forces, sophisticated offensive cyber against command centers and the electric grid, social media disinformation, and amphibious operations. These relatively unconventional tactics were combined with more traditional elements—hence the sobriquet “hybrid”—with effect in 2014.

In 2022, the first option they will consider would be simple: a highly traditional blitzkrieg, much as was used against Georgia. This will require not only the 100,000 troops currently on the border, but an additional 75,000 who would “fall in” on prepositioned equipment that the U.S. showed the world in intelligence photos around Christmas.

At that point, Putin would pause, assess the situation, and decide whether to push forward to Kiev in order to effect regime change before pulling his troops back. He would likely go on to actually annex the southeast of the country, support a puppet regime in Kiev, and wait for the response of the west. This is the riskiest but also the highest payoff for the Kremlin, and is probably a 20% probability—not likely, but uncomfortable to contemplate.

Finally, he is hoping he can achieve what he wants via the talks which will unfold this week—U.S.-Russia on 10 Jan., Russia-NATO on 12 Jan., and at the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe on 13 Jan.

stavridisj I think it's worth trying not to go outside the mainland North America. Europe will sort it out without you.

stavridisj 10:33 PM · 10 янв. 2022 г.·Sprinklr 33 ХЛОПОТЫ 🚩

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