Covid alert: New Omicron variant ‘surging’ and could ‘evade immunity even more’ – expert
THE new Omicron sub-variant BA.2 is "surging" in Europe, possibly explained by "much faster transmission or it evades immunity even more", one health expert has speculated.
Omicron: Another 'more infectious variant will come' says doctor
The mutation of the Omicron variant was earlier this week classified by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) as under investigation. It said that as of January 10, just 53 sequences of it had been identified in samples.
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The news comes as the pandemic appears to be waning in the UK, with cases dropping significantly from a peak early in January – as Omicron took hold and people mixed over the holidays.
However, this evening, Eric Feigl-Ding, an epidemiologist and senior fellow at the Federation of American Scientists, said that the possibility of BA.2 “displacing” the original variant is “a really bad sign”.
He pointed to data which suggested that “almost half” of Omicron cases in Denmark were BA.2 – “surpassing the old Omicron BA.1 variant by a lot.”
Dr Feigl-Ding posted on Twitter: “Either it’s much faster transmission or it evades immunity even more.”
READ MORE: Covid warning as UK detects 53 cases of Omicron sub-variant
He also noted data from Germany, where cases of BA.2 had risen to around 2 percent of Omicron infections by mid-January.
Dr Feigl-Ding commented: “Early but looking exponential too.”
In the Netherlands, Covid statistics suggest that the proportion had reached 5 percent of Omicron cases.
While still early in the UK, Dr Feigl-Ding said that the subvariant appears to be doubling approximately every four days.
This is a slower rate of replication than the original Omicron variant – which was able to displace the Delta variant every 1.5-3 days – “BA.2 displacing Omicron BA.1 is a really bad sign,” he said.
However, UK scientists remain cautiously optimistic that the new subvariant does not pose a threat to the immunity that the population has built up through vaccination.
Earlier today, Meaghan Kall, lead epidemiologist in the COVID-19 Epidemiology Cell at UKHSA, tweeted: “Yes, BA.2 is increasing in the UK.
“It may have a slight growth advantage, but no evidence at all yet that it can evade Omicron (BA.1) immunity or be different to Omicron in any meaningful way.
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“Variants will continue to emerge, but not all variants will be a problem.”
The UKHSA said on Friday that it was conducting further analysis to better understand BA.2.
Initial studies from Denmark show no difference in hospitalisations between the original Omicron variant and the new subvariant.
Danish health officials believe that the vaccine will still be effective against the new subvariant in preventing severe illness.
However, epidemiologists are still gathering further data to understand whether it is more transmissible than the original Omicron.
On Friday, Dr Meera Chand, UKHSA incident director, said that such subvariants were to be expected as “the nature of viruses [is] to evolve and mutate”.
She added: “Our continued genomic surveillance allows us to detect them and assess whether they are significant.”
According to the latest UKHSA estimates, England’s R number – the rate of reproduction of the virus – is believed to be between 0.8 and 1.1.
This suggests that the pandemic is shrinking slightly or is only growing by a 1 percent increase in cases per day.
