MADRID: World Bank chief economist Carmen Reinhart said she is sceptical that the US and global economies can dodge a recession, given spiking inflation, sharp hikes in interest rates and slowing growth in China.
“What worries everybody is that all the risks are stacked on the downside," Reinhart told Reuters in a remote interview, citing a series of adverse shocks and moves by the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates after a decade and a half of ultra-low and negative rates. The World Bank this month slashed its global growth forecast by nearly a third to 2.9 per cent for 2022, warning that Russia's war in Ukraine had added to damage from the COVID-19 pandemic, and many countries now faced recession.
Asked if a recession could be avoided in the United States or globally, Reinhart said:"I'm pretty sceptical. In the mid-1990s, under Chairman Greenspan, we had a soft landing, but the inflation concern at the time was around 3 per cent, not around 8.5 per cent. It’s not like you can point to a lot of episodes of significant Fed tightening that haven’t taken a toll on the economy.”
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