UK risks twice-as-big second Covid-19 wave without better testing, study finds

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LONDON (REUTERS) - Britain faces a second wave of Covid-19 this winter twice as widespread as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools without a more effective test-and-trace system in place, according to a study published on Tuesday (Aug 4).. Read more at straitstimes.com.

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LONDON - Britain faces a second wave of Covid-19 this winter twice as widespread as the initial outbreak if it reopens schools without a more effective test-and-trace system in place, according to a study published on Tuesday .

They concluded that a second wave could be prevented if 75 per cent of those with symptoms were found and tested and 68 per cent of their contacts were traced, or if 87 per cent of people with symptoms were found and 40 per cent of their contacts tested. "Our modelling results suggest that full school reopening in September 2020 without an effective test-trace-isolate strategy would result in R rising above 1 and a resulting second wave of infections that would peak in December 2020 and be 2.0-2·3 times the size of the original Covid-19 wave," the study said.

Dr Panovska-Griffiths, a lecturer in mathematical modelling at University College London, told BBC radio that the worst scenarios could still be avoided.

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