SINGAPORE - Economic growth in South-east Asia is forecast to ease to 4.5 per cent this year from 5.1 per cent in 2018, before stabilising at the same rate of 4.5 per cent in 2020, British advisory firm Oxford Economics said on Thursday .
"Amid ongoing global headwinds and uncertainty around the outcome of US-China trade talks, we expect to see a further deterioration in economic prospects across the region," said Sian Fenner, ICAEW economic advisor and Oxford Economics lead Asia economist. This was due to spill-overs from the US-China trade war, slower Chinese domestic demand and a downturn in the global electronics cycle, the report stated.
Central banks in South-east Asia are expected to reduce interest rates in order to boost domestic demand, against the challenging external backdrop of lower US interest rates and subdued inflationary pressures, the report noted. Fiscal policy will also likely become more supportive amid higher infrastructure investment.
Elsewhere in the region, Vietnam is set to continue outperforming the rest of South-east Asia thanks to positive trade diversion effects, albeit with a moderation in its GDP growth to 6.7 per cent this year, followed by a further slowdown to 6.3 per cent in 2020, according to the report.
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