S'pore unlikely to slip into technical recession despite Q2 contraction, but economists cautious of possibility

11/8/2022 3:15:00 PM

Economists say S'pore unlikely to slip into technical recession despite 2Q contraction

Economy, Mtı

Economists say S'pore unlikely to slip into technical recession despite 2Q contraction

SINGAPORE — Private sector economists cautiously agree with the Government’s assessment that Singapore will avoid a technical recession this year, while adding that the possibility cannot be entirely ruled out.

expanded 4.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter, it shrank slightly by 0.2 per cent in the April-to-June quarter on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, a reversal from the 0.8 per cent expansion in the first quarter.“But of course, I will also say that there are risks because of the global economic environment having weakened.”

two straight quarters of economic contraction but the Biden administration insists that with the labour market so strong, the US is not in recession.BRIGHT SPOTS POSSIBLY DIMMED BY MANPOWER CONSTRAINTS“And that would have a positive effect on Singapore's growth outlook in the third quarter,” said Mr Seah, given that China is a key trading partner.

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While the Singapore economy expanded 4.4 per cent on a year-on-year basis in the second quarter, it shrank slightly by 0. Mr Lee wrote that his friend was no longer hired and had been replaced with foreigners.2 per cent in the April-to-June quarter on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted basis, a reversal from the 0.8% y-o-y growth seen in 1Q.8 per cent expansion in the first quarter. Mr Lee also wrote that his friend had given up looking for any other jobs. Asked by the media on Thursday whether the Government expects the economy to continue contracting in the current third quarter, MTI’s chief economist Yong Yik Wei said that the economy appears set to return to quarter-on-quarter growth for the rest of the year. Emergency workers responded but the woman was pronounced dead at the scene.

“So in other words, we do not expect a technical recession,” she said. In a Facebook post to popular page Voice Your Grievances , a netizen known by the name of Keyloid Ng wrote: “Office admin jobs are the most useless jobs in sg”.8 per cent expansion in the first quarter. “But of course, I will also say that there are risks because of the global economic environment having weakened.” A technical recession occurs when the economy contracts in quarter-on-quarter terms for two successive quarters. Should the company post one job vacancy on a website, there would be easily a hundred to five hundred people applying, he wrote. While this is a widely-accepted definition, current global conditions have fuelled a debate over whether it applies at present. “Notwithstanding recent signs of a slight easing in global supply disruptions, the disruptions are likely to persist for the rest of the year as underlying factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and China’s zero-COVID policy remain,” says MTI. The United States two straight quarters of economic contraction but the Biden administration insists that with the labour market so strong, the US is not in recession. He added that even if he did land the administrative job, it would most likely be a stressful one. The park was closed following the incident and remained shut indefinitely.

Singapore-based economists had previously told TODAY that stagflation — where a — was not to be expected given the current economic situation, though the risks of it happening may increase. BRIGHT SPOTS POSSIBLY DIMMED BY MANPOWER CONSTRAINTS DBS Bank senior economist Irvin Seah, said that “there is a good chance” a technical recession can be avoided. The woman asked if she should leave her boyfriend because he wanted to leave his job in a multinational company (MNC). Second, financial stability risks could intensify if there are disorderly market adjustments to monetary policy tightening in the advanced economies. For one thing, he expects China’s economic growth to improve as its Covid-related lockdowns ease. “And that would have a positive effect on Singapore's growth outlook in the third quarter,” said Mr Seah, given that China is a key trading partner. She added that her boyfriend worked in an MNC, and she worked in a Small and Medium enterprise (SME), “taking home a decent amount of 3k per month. He said that this is in addition to the growth from the recovering services industry here following Singapore’s reopening. Fourth, the trajectory of the COVID‐19 pandemic remains a risk, given the potential emergence of more virulent strains of the virus." Klotti was initially built as a wildlife park in the 1970s.

Similarly, Ms Yun Liu, HSBC economist, said the bank"(does) not think" Singapore will see a technical recession. It is unclear if they were each bringing home $3,000 a month or if their combined income was $3,000. “ Travel- and consumer-related services will continue to see improvements, offsetting some weakness in the externally-oriented sectors. HSBC economist Yun Liu, on Singapore's economic outlook ” "Travel- and consumer-related services will continue to see improvements, offsetting some weakness in the externally-oriented sectors," she said.sg - Advertisement -. Ms Selena Ling, OCBC chief economist, added that professional services sectors are also expected to benefit with the resumption of travel. However, experts cautioned that such growth may be tempered by current manpower constraints.

Mr Alvin Liew, UOB senior economist, also expects quarter-on-quarter growth “to return to positive territory” in the current third quarter. However, he also voiced concerns over the tight manpower market, on top of “the rising cost issues relating to both wage growth and operating costs of businesses”. Referring to MTI’s report, he highlighted how the value-added per actual hour worked measure eased noticeably to 0.8 per cent year on year in the second quarter of this year, down from 2.3 per cent in the preceding quarter.

Meanwhile, the unit labour cost for the overall economy rose further to 9 per cent year on year from 7.7 per cent over the same period last year. However, he said the expected increase in the supply of foreign labour as borders reopen will augment the existing labour pool, especially within Singapore’s labour-intensive industries. SLOWING MOMENTUM IN OUTWARD-ORIENTED INDUSTRIES CIMB bank economist Song Seng Wun similarly expects the inflow of manpower that may help to growth in sectors such as services and construction. In the broader picture, he pointed to uneven growth across sectors in Singapore.

He highlighted industries that “benefit from the reopening” such as tourism and aviation, while simultaneously pointing to the “slowing momentum” of industries that are subjected to global demand slowdowns, such as manufacturing. While he acknowledged that it would depend on how these industries balance each other out, Mr Song expects “a higher chance of another contraction rather than growth” for the next quarter. He said that even if Singapore sees headline growth, inflation, which is expected to peak in the third quarter of the year, “may take the wind out of nominal growth”, resulting in a contraction in real terms. Other economists, though expecting a slow positive growth for the rest of the year, are cautious about their outlook. Ms Ling from OCBC, projects a 0.

2 per cent growth next quarter on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis. However, she said the risk of a potential technical recession “cannot be ruled out”, and the chances of avoiding one “probably close to a 50-50 call for now”. She added that"may not take much to tip ...

(my) forecast into negative territory" if manufacturing momentum continues to moderate more than expected. Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Lee Ju Ye, while expecting the economy to continue growing in the second half of the year albeit at a slower rate of 1.3 per cent, said that there is"some risk of a technical recession" if economic growth slows to about 2 per cent on a year-on-year basis. “The boost from the reopening tailwinds will dissipate, while global headwinds including rising United States and global , China’s slowdown, and a probable Europe recession will dampen exports and trade-related services,” they added. Related topics .