U.S. employers likely stepped up hiring in March amid increased vaccinations and more pandemic relief money from the government, which would cement expectations for a boom that could push this year's economic growth to the strongest since 1984.
Nonfarm payrolls likely surged by 647,000 jobs last month after increasing by 379,000 in February, according to a Reuters survey of economists. That would be the biggest gain since October. Estimates ranged from as low as 115,000 to as high as 1.1 million jobs. That led to a significant improvement in labor market conditions last month. Reports this week showed a measure of factory employment jumped in March to the highest since February 2018, while layoffs announced by U.S. companies were the fewest in more than 2-1/2 years.
First-quarter gross domestic product estimates go as high as an annualized rate of 10.0per cent. The economy grew at a 4.3per cent pace in the fourth quarter. Growth this year could top 7per cent, which would be the fastest since 1984. The economy contracted 3.5per cent in 2020, the worst performance in 74 years.
The anticipated return of more people to the labor force could even raise the jobless rate. The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, is expected to have inched up from near 50-year lows. More than 4 million workers, over half of them women, have dropped out of the labor force since February 2020.
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