Quarter-end rebalancing could present headwinds for Wall Street
Part of the reason why U.S. stocks are struggling for a second straight week may be quarter- and month-end rebalancing by pension funds, which ...
BusinessPart of the reason why U.S. stocks are struggling for a second straight week may be quarter- and month-end rebalancing by pension funds, which could also keep pressure on equities through the end of March next week.FILE PHOTO: American flags hang from the facade of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) building after the start of Thursday's trading session in Manhattan in New York City, New York, U.S., January 28, 2021. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo
2related media assets (image or videos) available. Click to see the gallery.26 Mar 2021 03:50AMShare this contentBookmarkNEW YORK: Part of the reason why U.S. stocks are struggling for a second straight week may be quarter- and month-end rebalancing by pension funds, which could also keep pressure on equities through the end of March next week.
With the S&P 500 up nearly 2per cent for the month and more than 3per cent for the quarter while bond prices have struggled, pushing the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note to a 14-month high last week, many analysts expect money to shift into the fixed income segment. headtopics.com
AdvertisementAdvertisementBut as the benchmark S&P index has struggled of late while pressure on bond prices has eased, with the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury hitting a one-week low on Thursday, Wells Fargo analysts now expect U.S. pensions to move an additional US$19 billion into fixed income for rebalancing, down from their initial estimate on March 18 of US$28 billion.
In a note on Wednesday, Credit Suisse estimated combined selling of US$32.6 billion in U.S. equities from pension funds that rebalance on a monthly or quarterly basis. Using the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond Fund ETF as a proxy, the firm anticipates about US$45 billion to buy as funds boost their fixed-income exposure.
But not all analysts expect rebalancing to cause a downdraft on stock performance. Marko Kolanovic, J.P. Morgan's chief global markets strategist believes recent trends in portfolio rebalancing have taken the bite out of the dreaded quarter-end rebalancing. These include tweaks to portfolios being more opportunistic rather than strictly at quarter-ends, and reallocations geared towards volatility levels rather than fixed target weights for particular asset classes.
"A lack of these flows, and broad anticipation of 'month/quarter-end' effect, could result in the market moving higher near term, all else equal," Kolanovic said.AdvertisementAdvertisementEach of the firms cautioned the actual timing of the rebalancing can vary, and in some cases may have already begun. headtopics.com
(Additional reporting by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed; Editing by Alden Bentley and Nick Zieminski) Read more: CNA »
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