IMF cuts global growth forecasts as India falters, says bottom may be near

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The International Monetary Fund on Monday trimmed back its 2020 global growth forecasts due to sharper-than-expected slowdowns in India and other ...

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WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund on Monday (Jan 20) trimmed back its 2020 global growth forecasts due to sharper-than-expected slowdowns in India and other emerging markets but said a US-China trade deal was another sign that trade and manufacturing activity may soon bottom out.

The IMF also said it marked down growth forecasts for Chile due to social unrest and for Mexico, due to a continued weakness in investment. The IMF upgraded China's 2020 growth forecast by 0.2 percentage point to 6.0 per cent because the US trade deal included a partial tariff reduction and cancelled tariffs on Chinese consumer goods that had been scheduled for December. These tariffs had been built into the IMF's previous forecasts.

Instead, the IMF said 2020 US growth would be 0.1 percentage point lower than forecast in October, at 2.0 per cent because of the fading stimulus effects from 2017 tax cuts and the Federal Reserve's monetary easing. Monetary and fiscal stimulus is expected to lift India's growth rate back to 6.5 per cent in 2021, although this is still 0.9 percentage point lower than forecast in October.

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