NEW YORK : The International Monetary Fund on Monday raised its output growth estimate on emerging markets for this year, with projections now showing the economic slowdown in the region may have bottomed out in 2022, on the back of China reopening, a resilient India and unexpected growth in Russia.
Some 15 per cent of low-income countries are estimated to be already in debt distress and 45 per cent more are at high risk of getting there, with 1-in-4 emerging market economies also at high risk. Russia, on the other hand, has seen a 2.6 per centage point increase in the 2023 growth projection, which translates to a view of a 0.3 per cent expansion this year. It is by far the biggest positive revision among the largest economies.
Growth in Middle Eastern and Central Asian economies is seen slowing this year to 3.2 per cent, 0.4 per centage point lower than the October estimate, partly due to effects of the war in Europe. Brazil and Mexico, Latin America's largest economies, were both upwardly revised in their 2023 economic growth by 0.2 and 0.5 per centage point, respectively. For Latam and the Caribbean, the overall increase in the growth estimate was just 0.1 per centage point, to 1.8 per cent.
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