GENEVA - As the number of coronavirus cases jumps dramatically in China, a top infectious-disease scientist warns that things could get far worse: Two-thirds of the world's population could catch it.
If the virus spreads to anywhere near that extent, it will show the limitations of China's strict containment measures, including quarantining areas inhabited by tens of millions of people. The country boosted its count of those infected by almost 15,000 on Thursday after widening the diagnosis methods.
"Unless the transmissibility changes, surveillance and containment can only work so well," Longini, co-director of the Centre for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases at the University of Florida, said in an interview at WHO headquarters in Geneva.He is not alone in warning of the possibility of a far greater spread.
The estimates of spread are part of a spectrum of possibilities that could unfold as the epidemic progresses, said Alessandro Vespignani, a biostatistician at Northeastern University in Boston.
2/3rd thats bogus. thats 4.7 billion ppl. with noisy limited data making tall claims. read dubious intentions. and seems intentional to add to hysteria. Interesting to see if any countries or even their own gov in UK would pay heed to such analysis for future prep.
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